Abstract: An empirical method in the ship domain is proposed to quantify the scale of the moving safety zone for LNG carriers and extended to estimate the traffic capacity under LNG carriers navigation mode. Based on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, a case study of the waterway near Wuhaogou LNG terminal was applied to testify the applicability of the proposed model in estimating the traffic capacity. Results show that the scale error of the moving safety zone is between 15 to 28 meters, indicating a higher accuracy. When LNG carriers sail into the waterway, the traffic capacity in the same and reverse directions is 110~250 ship · h-1 and 120~230 ship · h-1 , respectively. When LNG carriers sail out of the waterway, the traffic capacity in the same and reverse directions is 140~240 ship · h- 1 and 90~ 230 ships· h-1 , respectively. To maximize the navigational efficiency, LNG carriers are suggested to enter the waterway one hour before the high tide during the daytime at a speed of at least 11 knots but without exceeding the permissible maximum speed. To guarantee navigational safety, LNG carriers are advised to depart the waterway one hour after the high tide during the daytime and maintain the speed below 9.5 knots.

Key words: waterway transportation, traffic capacity, moving safety zone, Yangtze River estuary area, AIS data

摘要： 针对液化天然气(Liquefied Natural Gas，LNG)船通航的特殊性，提出一种船舶领域的实证方法，以定量界定LNG船移动安全区尺度，并构建LNG船通航模式下的航道通过能力模型。根据五号沟LNG码头所在航道船舶自动识别系统(AIS)数据，对所提出的航道通过能力模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明，LNG船移动安全区尺度误差在15~28 m，具有较高的精确度。LNG船进港通航影响下的同向和逆向航道通过能力分别为110~250艘·h-1、120~230艘·h-1；LNG船出港通航影响下的同向和逆向航道通过能力分别为140~240艘·h-1、90~230艘·h-1。从通航效率的角度， 建议LNG船在满潮前1 h的白天时段进港，航速可保持11 kn以上，但不应超过规定的最大航速； 从通航安全的角度，建议 LNG 船在满潮后 1 h 的白天时段出港且航速保持 9.5 kn 以下，以保障 LNG船航行安全。

关键词: 水路运输, 通过能力, 移动安全区, 长江口水域, AIS数据