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Spatiotemporal Impact Mechanism of Urban Rail Transit Passenger
Flow in Different Periods
ZHANG Pengyu, LI Zhengzhong, ZHANG Xiran, YUE Xiaohui
2025, 25(4):
24-33.
DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2025.04.003
Researches on the spatiotemporal impact mechanism of rail transit passenger flow on workdays, weekends, and statutory
holidays are much crucial to formulate targeted development strategies and optimize spatiotemporal resource allocation. Previous
studies have mainly focused on weekday passenger flow, but have not fully considered the key influencing factors and differences
about their effects on passenger flow during different periods. This article implements machine learning regression model through
tuning, training, and evaluation screening based on the data from three different periods of passenger flow and the variable of
"5Ds+C" (Density, Diversity, Design, Destination Accessibility, Distance and Centrality) influencing factors. The XGBoost-SHAP
model is used to analyze the differences from the spatiotemporal impact on passenger flow at three levels: overall feature
importance, interaction effects, and local spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The case study of Tianjin Metro shows that the XGBoost
has better explanatory power compared to the Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), with a fitting
coefficient of over 0.7. There are significant differences in key influencing factors, importance, and mode of influence between
workdays, weekends, and holidays in terms of overall feature importance analysis. The importance of diversified travel factors on
weekends and holidays reaching 59.8% and 61.3% . According to interaction effect analysis, residential land has significant
interaction effects on passenger flow in office land, shopping and leisure land, and tourist attraction land over different periods.
Attention should be paid to the residential land at low land use level, the mature residential areas with good facilities construction,
and the commercial tourism land with passenger flow agglomeration respectively during weekdays, weekends, and holidays by the
analysis of the local spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The stations with complete leisure tourism facilities have passenger flow
increased significantly during holidays, with a SHAP impact value increasing by about 5000.
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