关键词: 城市交通, 短途出行, 综合选择与潜变量模型, 电动自行车, 心理潜变量, 出行方式选择

Abstract: Focusing on trips within 0~3 kilometers, this study examines residents' mode choice behavior among four green transportation options: electric bicycles, shared bicycles, buses, and the metro. This study incorporates granular environmental and service attributes alongside classical dimensions to develop an Integrated Choice and Latent Variable model (ICLV), thereby deepening the characterization of psychological and micro-environmental factors in travel decisions. Through systematic comparison with the traditional Multinomial Logit model, the ICLV model demonstrates advantages in both goodness- of- fit and behavioral interpretability. The results indicate that psychological latent variables, socio-economic attributes, and mode-specific characteristics all significantly influence choice behavior, with the psychological pathways enhancing the model's explanatory depth. Among the findings, an increase in metro headway exerts a pronounced positive effect on electric bicycle choice (with the probability of choosing an electric bicycle rising by approximately 7.27 percentage points when the headway increases from 3 to 9 minutes), while the effects of shared-bike cost and bus in-vehicle travel time are relatively more gradual. Furthermore, the presence of physically segregated bicycle lanes significantly increases the attractiveness of shared bicycles, whereas air pollution encourages a shift toward bus and metro use. These findings reveal the complex competitive and substitutive relationships among short-distance green travel modes. The conclusions provide a quantitative basis for the design of short-trip environments, the coordinated development of multimodal green transport systems, and the formulation of targeted policies.

Key words: urban transportation, short-distance travel, integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) model, electric bicycle; psychological latent variables, travel mode choice