基于SP调查的缅甸仰光市居民收入对其出行方式选择的影响的研究

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2008, Vol. 8 ›› Issue (4): 49-62 .

基于SP调查的缅甸仰光市居民收入对其出行方式选择的影响的研究

张峻屹*¹;藤员章正¹;Soe Thein ²

1.广岛大学国际发展与协作学院，日本东广岛市 739-8529;
2. 仰光市城市发展委员会道路与桥梁工程部，缅甸

收稿日期:2008-05-23 修回日期:2008-07-19 出版日期:2008-08-25 发布日期:2008-08-25
通讯作者: 张峻屹
作者简介:张俊屹，男，广岛大学国际发展与协作学院，副教授.

Capturing Travelers’ Stated Mode Choice Preferences under the Influence of Income in Yangon City, Myanmar

ZHANG Jun-yi^{* 1} ; FUJIWARA Akimasa¹;Soe Thein ²

1. Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation,Hiroshima University, Kagamiyama 1-5-1, Higashi-Hiroshima, 739-8529, Japan;
2. Roads and Bridges Department, Yangon City Development Committee,
420, Mahar Bandoola Road, Yangon, Unoin of Myanmar, Myanmar

Received:2008-05-23 Revised:2008-07-19 Online:2008-08-25 Published:2008-08-25
Contact: ZHANG Jun-yi

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 对于缅甸的仰光市而言，鉴于其新的快速轨道交通系统对于缓解城市现在以及将来的交通压力方面的作用，本文将依据SP调查数据对其居民出行方式选择行为进行研究。与发达国家相比，由于发展中国家诸如收入等社会经济环境因素变化相对较快，这就要求我们无论在调查方法还是模型构造上都要反映出这种交通行为决定因素的影响。因此，此次SP调查首先在设计就反映出了将来的收入以及其他服务水平属性变化的影响；同时，也相应地进行了RP调查。接下来，要对一个RP/SP相结合的交通方式选择模型进行标定；在这个模型中，出行时间和费用的参数被分别定义为将来收入的函数。此次SP（以及RP）调查选在仰光市的一个住宅区进行，时间是2003年3月。调查结果显示，与其他交通方式相比较，被调查的人对新的快速轨道交通系统显示出了极大的偏爱。利用调查上来的数据，本文对所提出的模型结构的有效性进行了验证。另外，模型对将来的模拟分析结果显示：随着收入的增加，将来仰光市小汽车的使用将有一个很大的增加，而新的快速轨道交通系统的利用将因此减少。

关键词: 背景依赖, 叙述性偏好调查, 显示性偏好调查, RP/SP联合模型, 仰光, 方式选择

Abstract: Focusing on the role of a new transit system in mitigating current and future potential traffic issues in Yangon City of Myanmar, this paper attempts to analyze mode choice behavior based on a stated preference (SP) survey. Comparing with developed countries, developing countries are characterized by rapidly changing socio-economic environments (esp., income). It is required to reflect the influence of such decision context in both survey method and modeling framework. Therefore, SP survey is first designed to incorporate the influence of future income as well as other level-of-service attributes, while a revealed preference (RP) survey is also prepared. Second, a RP/SP combined mode choice model is estimated, in which the parameters of travel time and cost are defined as a function of future income, respectively. A SP survey was conducted at a residential area of Yangon City in March 2003. This is the first SP survey done in Myanmar. Respondents show the highest preference of new transit system among travel modes. The effectiveness of the proposed model structure was empirically confirmed. Furthermore, simulation analysis suggests that future income will bring about a potentially large increase in car usage and consequently reduction in transit systems.

Key words: context dependence;stated preference survey, RP/SP combined model, Yangon City, mode choice

中图分类号:

U491

张峻屹,藤员章正,Soe Thein . 基于SP调查的缅甸仰光市居民收入对其出行方式选择的影响的研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2008, 8(4): 49-62 .

ZHANG Jun-yi, FUJIWARA Akimasa,Soe Thein . Capturing Travelers’ Stated Mode Choice Preferences under the Influence of Income in Yangon City, Myanmar[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2008, 8(4): 49-62 .

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