基于货运量及能源强度影响的长三角地区货运碳排放研究

doi:10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2023.06.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为探究长三角地区货运碳排放与货运量及能源强度之间的关系，建立自回归分布滞后误差修正模型(ARDL-ECM)研究长三角地区近30年的货运量、GDP及能源强度与货运碳排放之间的长期及短期关系，并通过格兰杰因果检验分析3组数据与货运碳排放存在的因果关系。研究结果表明：长期条件下，货运量、GDP 与能源强度每增加 1%，货运碳排放量分别增加 2.369%，1.394%，2.198%，三者均导致货运碳排放量增加；短期条件下，货运量与能源强度每增加1%，货运碳排放量增加3.285%与0.935%，两者在短期内均导致货运碳排放量增加；格兰杰因果检验表明，能源强度与货运碳排放量之间存在单向因果关系。因此，应推广新能源货运方式降低能源强度，提高能源利用效率，完善多式联运货运网络达到降低货运碳排放的目标。

关键词: 交通运输经济, 货运碳排放, ARDL-ECM模型, 货运量, 能源强度, 格兰杰因果检验

Abstract: To investigate the relationship between freight carbon emissions and freight volume as well as energy intensity in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, an autoregressive distributed lagged error correction model (ARDL-ECM) was established to examine the long-run and short-run relationships between freight volume, GDP, energy intensity, and freight carbon emissions in the YRD region over the past 30 years. The Granger test was used to analyze the existence of the three data sets and their relationship with freight carbon emissions. Our findings reveal that freight carbon emissions increase by 2.369% , 1.394% , and 2.198% , respectively, when freight volume, GDP, and energy intensity increase by 1% in the long term. In the short term, we observe a 3.285% increase in freight carbon emissions when freight volume increased by 1%, and a 0.935% increase when energy intensity increased by 1%. The Granger test confirms a unidirectional causal link between energy intensity and freight carbon emissions. Therefore, we recommend the promotion of new energy-efficient freight transportation methods to reduce energy intensity, enhance energy utilization efficiency, and improve the multimodal freight transport network for the goal of reducing carbon emissions from freight transport.

Key words: transportation economy;freight carbon emission;ARDL- ECM model, freight volume;energy intensity;Granger test

中图分类号:

邬岚, 陆豪冬, 尹超英, 成迎吉, 任斯奇. 基于货运量及能源强度影响的长三角地区货运碳排放研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2023, 23(6): 1-10.

WU Lan, LU Hao-dong, YIN Chao-ying, CHENG Ying-ji, REN Si-qi. Freight Carbon Emissions in Yangtze River Delta Region Based on Impact of Freight Volume and Energy Intensity[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2023, 23(6): 1-10.

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http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2023/V23/I6/1

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