基于约束卡尔曼滤波的信控干线动态OD估计

doi:10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2026.01.006

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2026, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (1): 55-64.DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2026.01.006

• 智能交通系统与信息技术 • 上一篇下一篇

基于约束卡尔曼滤波的信控干线动态OD估计

郭瑞军^*1，盛诣皓¹，姜凯宁²，郝梓彤¹

1. 大连交通大学，交通工程学院，辽宁大连116028；2.中国铁路沈阳局集团有限公司，沈阳110001

收稿日期:2025-10-17 修回日期:2025-11-24 接受日期:2025-12-17 出版日期:2026-02-25 发布日期:2026-02-13
作者简介:郭瑞军（1977—），男，内蒙古和林格尔人，教授，博士。
基金资助:
辽宁省兴辽英才计划项目(XLYC2411087)；2025年度辽宁省科协科技创新智库项目(LNKX2025XK03)。

Dynamic OD Estimation for Signalized Arterials via Constrained Kalman Filter

GUO Ruijun^*1, SHENG Yihao¹, JIANG Kaining², HAO Zitong¹

1. School of Traffic Engineering, Dalian Jiaotong University, Dalian 116028, Liaoning, China; 2. China Railway Shenyang Group Co Ltd, Shenyang 110001, China

Received:2025-10-17 Revised:2025-11-24 Accepted:2025-12-17 Online:2026-02-25 Published:2026-02-13
Supported by:
Xingliao Talent Plan Project of Liaoning Province, China (XLYC2411087)；2025 Technology Innovation Think Tank Project of the Association for Science and Technology, Liaoning Province, China (LNKX2025XK03)。

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对城市干线多路径交通需求时变，传统的OD估计方法难以满足信号协调控制对精度与实时性的要求，本文提出一种基于等式约束卡尔曼滤波的干线动态OD估计方法。模型首先建立干线中转向流量与OD之间的时空映射关系，分析信控交叉口上游信号配时对下游车流量到达的关系，增加额外等式关系引入观测方程以提高模型准确性。为确保状态估计满足流量守恒等物理约束，采用带等式约束的卡尔曼滤波方法，并基于最小均方误差原则推导状态修正机制并求解模型。以大连市山东路干线交通为应用案例，结果表明：关键路径OD的平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）分别为12.3%和17.5%。与传统转向流量模型相比，所提方法在精度上具有一定提升，能更好地捕捉OD流量的时变特征，可以为干线多路径信号协调控制提供可靠的实时输入。

关键词: 城市交通, 动态OD估计, 约束卡尔曼滤波, 信号配时条件, 转向流量

Abstract: To address the time-varying multi-path demand on arterial corridors and the inability of conventional (Origin Destination) OD estimation methods to meet the accuracy and real-time requirements of signal coordination, this paper proposes a dynamic arterial OD estimation method based on an equality-constrained Kalman filter. The model first builds a spatio-temporal mapping between turning flows and OD demands, incorporates signal timing based arrival equalities into the measurement equation to improve model accuracy. To ensure estimates satisfy flow-conservation and other physical constraints, an equality constrained Kalman filter is used and a state-correction mechanism is derived under the minimum mean-square-error criterion to solve the model. A case study on the arterial traffic of Shandong Road in Dalian city shows that the mean absolute errors (MAPE) for two key paths are 12.3% and 17.5%. Compared with a traditional turning-flow model, the proposed approach improves estimation accuracy and better captures the temporal variation of OD flows, providing reliable real-time inputs for multi-path signal coordination.

Key words: urban transportation, dynamic OD estimation, constrained Kalman filter, signal-timing conditions, turning flows

中图分类号:

U491.5+4

郭瑞军, 盛诣皓, 姜凯宁, 郝梓彤. 基于约束卡尔曼滤波的信控干线动态OD估计[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2026, 26(1): 55-64.

GUO Ruijun, SHENG Yihao, JIANG Kaining, HAO Zitong. Dynamic OD Estimation for Signalized Arterials via Constrained Kalman Filter[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2026, 26(1): 55-64.

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http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2026/V26/I1/55

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基于约束卡尔曼滤波的信控干线动态OD估计

Dynamic OD Estimation for Signalized Arterials via Constrained Kalman Filter

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