Abstract: Transportation structure adjustment, energy conservation and emission reduction require promoting a modal shift from road to rail for the automobile transport. This study proposes a method to measure the costs and prices of road automobile transport, solving the problems that the traditional method does not take into account return empty loads and is not accurate enough. The efficient design technique was used to efficiently collect the disaggregate freight choice behavior data of automobile shippers and a road/rail competitiveness model for automobile transport was developed based on Multinomial Logit and Mixed Logit models. The road automobile transport costs and prices measurement method and the road/rail competitiveness model were integrated to derive expressions for the elasticity of rail market share to fuel prices and to compare and analyze the impact of fuel price changes on the rail's competitiveness of different ODs (Origins and Destinations). The results show that the proposed method for measuring the costs and prices of road automobile transport can meet the requirements for practical use. The freight mode choice behavior model performs better than the traditional model in terms of fitness accuracy, and the freight value of time decreases with the increase of transport distance. When the fuel price increases by 20% , the rail market share of medium and long-distance transport increases by more than 30%, while the rail market share of short distance only increases by 0.01% . The longer the transport distance and the more uneven the demand for automobile transport between ODs, the greater the fuel price elasticity of rail market share. In addition, compared with the 1% increase in fuel prices, the carbon tax rate of 40 CNY ⋅ t -1 CO2 has a weaker effect on the promotion of modal shift from road to rail.

Key words: transportation economy, automobile transport, discrete choice model, cost measurement, fuel price, carbon emission reduction

摘要： 运输结构调整和节能减排均要求促进商品车运输“公转铁”。本文提出一套测算公路商品车运输成本和价格的方法，解决传统方法未考虑回程空载和准确度不足的问题；利用有效设计技术高效采集商品车托运人的非集计货运方式选择行为数据，构建基于多项Logit和混合Logit的商品车运输公铁竞争力模型；整合公路商品车运输成本和价格测算方法以及商品车公铁竞争力模型，推导铁路市场份额对燃油价格的弹性表达式，比较分析燃油价格变化对不同 OD (Origin Destination)铁路运输竞争力的影响。结果表明：本文提出的公路商品车运输成本和价格测算方法可满足实际使用要求；所构建的货运方式选择行为模型拟合精度较优，商品车的货运时间价值随运输距离增加而降低；当燃油价格上涨20%时，铁路中长距离与长距离运输市场份额均增加30%以上，而短距离市场份额仅增加0.01%；运输距离越长且OD间商品车运输需求越不均衡时，铁路运输市场份额的燃油价格弹性越大。此外，与燃油价格上涨1%相比，40元·t-1的CO2碳税税率对“公转铁”的促进作用较弱。

关键词: 交通运输经济, 商品车运输, 离散选择模型, 成本测算, 燃油价格, 碳减排