Sustainability Assessment of Urban Transport Policy——A Case Study of Beijing, China

Abstract

Abstract: System dynamics is an appropriate approach for quantitative specification of the sustainability analysis and assessment of transport policy which has a character of long-range, multiple and feedback. This paper will assess sustainability of transport policy in the urban areas in Beijing as a case of study from the case year 2002 to the 2020 horizon by establishing a system dynamic model which simulates the system with interactions between traffic and social development and is of interest to understand the nature and scope of the transport sustainability development in Beijing. A range of simulation results of different transport policy scenarios designed for Beijing are given and analysed in the paper.

Key words: system dynamics, sustainability, urban traffic, Beijing

摘要： 交通政策具有长期性、多样性和反馈性的特征，系统动力学是定量描述交通政策可持续性分析和评价的有效方法。以北京市为例，根据北京市2002年的交通数据至2020年的规划目标，建立了系统动力学模型，模拟了交通与社会发展的相互关系系统，研究了北京市城市交通可持续发展的特性，最后评价了北京市交通政策的可持续性。还提出了一些北京市交通发展政策，并分析了这些政策的仿真结果。

关键词: 系统动力学, 可持续发展, 城市交通, 北京

CHEN Hai-bo, WANG Xuan, MAO Bao-hua. Sustainability Assessment of Urban Transport Policy——A Case Study of Beijing, China[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2006, 6(3): 100-112 .

陈海波,王璇,毛保华. 城市交通政策的可持续性研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2006, 6(3): 100-112 .

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URL: http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/abstract/abstract17436.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/Y2006/V6/I3/100

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