Abstract: The Travel Generation Model of the Four Process Model System is one typical aggregated model, which simply forecasts the travel generation times and travel attraction times of every travel zone in the research district. It does not consider well the travel times of every resident, and it just does the sum of the travel times of the zone residents It can not reflect the effect of the individual and social factors and other factors on the residents’ travel times. According to the 2003 Changchun data, the paper utilizes the disaggregated theory to formulate disaggregated travel times forecasting model to analyze the residents’ travel times, then it has made the sensitivity analysis of the residents’ travel times. At last it has calculated the individual travel time expectation. It is a beneficial research on the integrative study and application of the disaggregated model and the Four Process Model System.

Key words: disaggregated model, travel times, probability, expectation

摘要： 传统的四步骤模型中的出行生成模型是预测研究范围内每个交通小区的出行发生次数和出行吸引次数，直接将居民的出行次数简单的按交通小区进行集计处理，并没有充分考虑每个人的出行次数，难以反映个人和家庭的社会经济等因素对居民个人出行次数的影响。本文根据2003年吉林省长春市居民出行调查数据，利用非集计模型建立居民个人的出行次数选择模型，并应用相关统计软件对模型进行标定，进而分析居民个人的出行次数，从而求得居民个人出行次数的期望值，初步尝试探索非集计模型和四步骤模型的综合应用问题。

关键词: 非集计模型, 出行次数, 选择概率, 期望值