Abstract: According to the basic principles of catastrophe theory, the evaluation indices are determined from three aspects: residents’ satisfaction, economy benefit, and sustainable development. The definition method of qualitative indices is also presented. Three elementary forms of catastrophe, such as, cusp, butterfly, and swallowtail are used to measure the membership function values of different traffic mode. However, these forms are hierarchical and vary in complexity of the control variables. Furthermore, to solve the problem of catastrophe evaluation value, this paper puts forward a new transformation way named linear equation. This method is applied to evaluate the passenger transport structure of Huainan city in Anhui province, and the results indicate that the evaluation method is feasible and matching well with real conditions.

Key words: urban traffic, catastrophe theory, passenger transport structure, evaluation indices, qualitative indices, linear transformation

摘要： 以突变理论的基本原理为出发点，从居民出行满意度、交通方式经济性、城市交通可持续性三方面，构建了适用于突变评价法的城市客运结构评价指标体系，重点探讨了定性指标的量化方法. 根据作为控制变量的子指标的个数，考虑“互补”与“非互补”原则，利用尖顶型、燕尾型和蝴蝶型三种常见的突变模型的归一公式，自下而上求出各种交通方式的隶属度函数值. 针对突变理论用于评价时具有分值偏高的缺陷，提出采用线性方程进行得分变换的方法来解决. 依据不同交通方式及其所占的比例对城市客运结构评价有不同程度的影响，通过加权计算，得到综合评价模型. 结合淮南市客运结构现状进行了实例分析，结果表明该方法可行.

关键词: 城市交通, 突变理论, 客运结构, 评价指标, 定性指标, 线性变换