Abstract:

In order to explore the revolution of the metro network's resilience, this paper constructs a series of indexes for assessing the stability of metro flow-weighted network from the perspectives of network connectivity, selfadaptivity, and availability, and proposes a method of analyzing cascading failures based on coupled map lattice model with the consideration of the impact of OD flow distribution on the network. Taking two metro networks of Beijing in 2014 and 2018 as examples, this paper constructs the dynamic stability analysis model based on the P-space weighted complex network and carries out the simulation attacks with different interferences on three nodes with different importance in these two networks to compare the evolution of network's stability. The numerical results show that with the topological structure of the Beijing metro network evolved from a small-world to scale-free network, the stability and invulnerability of the network in 2018 were significantly improved compared with 2014. The greater the attack on the stop with the larger flow, the more the cascading failures, the higher the probability of network paralysis, and the faster the paralysis speed. The research results can provide scientific theoretical basis for optimizing the network structure and site location and strengthening the safe operation and management of metros.

Key words: systems engineering, shortest path, P-space, coupled map lattice, metro stability, network evolution

摘要：

为研究地铁网络的韧性演化规律，本文从网络连通性、自适应性、有效性角度构建评估地铁网络稳定性的测度指标，考虑交通网络中OD流量分布的影响，提出基于加权耦合映像格子模型的地铁网络级联失效分析方法。以北京地铁2014年和2018年两个网络为例，构建基于P空间客流加权复杂网络的动态稳定性分析模型，选取网络中重要程度不同的3个节点，对这两个地铁网络开展干扰强度不同的模拟蓄意攻击，对比分析北京地铁网络稳定性的演化规律。数值分析结果表明，随着北京地铁网络拓扑结构由小世界网络向无标度网络演化，2018年北京地铁网络的稳定性和抗毁性要显著高于2014年；对客流量大的站点攻击强度越大时，网络节点相继故障传播越显著，网络瘫痪概率也越高，瘫痪速度也越快。本文研究结果可为优化地铁线网结构和站点设置、加强安全运营管理提供科学的理论依据。

关键词: 系统工程, 最短路径, P空间, 耦合映像格子, 地铁稳定性, 网络演化