Abstract: The paper uses the probability and statistic methods, and the small samples sets approach of chaos time series to analyze the impacts of interference on mixed traffic flow speed. The results show that interference only decrease its speed, and that the effect on motor-speed by bicycle group is more than one by single bicycle. The periodic interferences by straight-moving bicycles will change the dynamics feature of right-turning vehicles time headway from random into chaos, which is detected by measuring the largest Lyapunov exponents. In the paper a new method for calculating the interference is presented. These result will play an important role in the traffic management.

Key words: mixed traffic, interfere, time headway, chaos

摘要： 运用概率统计、混沌时间序列中小样本数据方法，分析了干扰对混合交通流速度的影响，结果表明干扰不影响交通速度的随机性，但是会降低混合交通的速度，而自行车群的干扰对机动车运行速度的影响大于单辆自行车，并且机动车车头时距在自行车周期性干扰下，对运行特性将由随机性变为混沌特性；接着从微观角度提出了干扰的计算方法。这些研究结论将为科学地进行交通管理奠定基础。

关键词: 混合交通, 干扰, 车头时距, 混沌