Abstract: In this paper, market penetration of probe vehicles for real-time traffic data collection is discussed. A new integrated probe market penetration model satisfied the need of traffic flow parameter estimation and traffic network coverage is established, in which many indexes like location error, probe data transmission interval, probe data analysis interval, traffic flow density, link length and link type are included. Based on this model, this paper has proved the relationship between the probe vehicle market penetration and other indexes when probe data uses for link average speed estimation based on VISSIM simulation. The simulation result shows that the market penetration model could provide effective probe information to accomplish the estimation of link speed.

Key words: probe vehicle technology, probe market penetration model, VISSIM simulation

摘要： 为解决移动交通流检测技术中无法合理确定出探测车样本比例的问题，提出了既满足交通流参数估计需求又达到一定路网覆盖率的探测车样本比例综合模型，该模型包括定位误差、探测车数据上传间隔、数据分析时长、路段交通流特性、路段长度、道路类型等多个影响因子，论证了在探测车数据无误差情况下路段平均速度估计时探测车占交通流的比例与其他因子之间的相互关系，VISSIM仿真数据表明利用该模型确定的探测车样本数据可有效实现路段平均速度估计。

关键词: 移动交通流检测技术, 探测车样本比例模型, VISSIM交通仿真