Estimating Traffic Flow Models for Urban Expressway Based on Measurement Data

Abstract

Abstract:

The existing traffic flow models, including fundamental diagram and threephase traffic theory, are conducted based on the highway traffic flow data. Because there exist significant differences between the highway and urban expressway traffic characteristics, the traffic flow models which developed based on highway traffic flow data, are not always suitable for the traffic flow conditions of the urban expressway. The measurement data of the urban expressway is used in this paper to develop the traffic flow models. The traffic flow models of speedoccupancy, traffic flowoccupancy, and speedtraffic flow are proposed using the linear regression analysis. The least square method is adopted to estimate the model parameters, and the significance of model fitting and parameters is tested by Fand Ttest. Some key issues are investigated, such as the traffic states splitting and impacts between traffic flow parameters. The results demonstrate that the developed traffic flow models are feasible for the shortterm traffic flow prediction and the traffic flow identification.

Key words: urban traffic, traffic flow model, linear regression, least square method, urban expressway

摘要：

已有的交通流参数模型无论是基本图还是三相交通流理论都是基于高速公路交通流数据进行研究，由于高速公路和城市快速路具有不可忽视的差异，以高速公路交通流数据为基础建立的交通流参数模型难以符合城市快速路交通流运行的实际情况.本文根据实测的城市快速路交通流数据，采用线性回归分析建立城市快速路速度—占有率模型、交通流率—占有率模型和速度—交通流率模型，应用最小二乘法估计模型参数，并以F和T检验对回归模型及回归系数的显著性进行检验.最后，在建立交通流参数模型、明确交通流参数之间关系的基础上，对城市快速路交通流状态进行了划分.本文建立的交通流参数模型，对交通流短时预测和交通流状态判别具有应用价值.

关键词: 城市交通, 交通流参数模型, 线性回归, 最小二乘法, 快速路

CLC Number:

U491.1

董春娇，邵春福，诸葛承祥，李慧轩. 基于实测数据的快速路交通流参数模型[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2013, 13(3): 46-52.

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http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/Y2013/V13/I3/46

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