Abstract:

Based on the brief analysis of the developing trend and main influencing factors of the dry bulk shipping market, the Delphi, time difference correlation analysis, KL information method and experience are comprehensively applied to establish the monitoring and early warning index system both in the Chinese dry bulk cargo shipping market environment and Chinese dry bulk shipping enterprises. In the meantime, t test, comprehensive evaluation method, the composite index method, diffusion index measure and other analysis methods are also used to respectively set up the monitor warning model and forecast warning model both in the Chinese dry bulk shipping market environment and Chinese dry bulk shipping enterprises. Verifying the model when inputting historical data, the analysis result shows that Chinese dry bulk shipping market has a risk of partial cold, which can hardly be recovered in the short term. While the dry bulk shipping enterprises are facing the great risk of going bankrupt after suffer of a long-time considerable loss.

Key words: waterway transportation, monitoring and early warning, composite index, dry bulk cargo, prosperity

摘要：

在简要分析干散货海运市场走势及主要影响因素的基础上，综合运用Delphi 法、时差相关分析法、K-L信息量法与经验借鉴法，建立了中国干散货海运市场环境景气监测预警指标体系与中国干散货海运企业景气监测预警指标体系.同时，综合利用t 检验、综合评价法、合成指数与扩散指数等方法，分别建立了中国干散货海运市场环境监测示警模型、中国干散货海运市场环境预测示警模型、中国干散货海运企业监测示警模型与中国干散货海运企业预测示警模型.最后，通过历史数据对模型进行了验证，结果表明，中国干散货海运市场环境存在偏冷风险，干散货海运企业流动资金依旧比较紧张，未来将进入一段较长时间的复苏期.

关键词: 水路运输, 监测预警, 合成指数, 干散货, 景气度