Abstract:

This paper regards "commuter uncontrolled use of private car" as a social dilemma, regards the commuters as the research object, collecting data by means of questionnaire survey built the travel mode choice behavior model considering social interaction effects and analysis multiple equilibria of collective behavior. In this paper, the critical mass theory is used to analyze how the collective behavior can reach the threshold of equilibrium transfer, and then make a quantitative evaluation of the policy intervention to eliminate the inferior equilibrium. The research found that there is a strong social interaction between individuals who made the travel mode choice. Policy intervention makes the individual choice of public transport travel utility increased slightly more than 0.695, the original stalemate in the inferior proportion of transit trips (13.1%) will be transferred to the advantage of the equilibrium state (72.3%). The research results have some reference value for the establishment of traffic management policies and measures.

Key words: urban traffic, social interaction, critical mass theory, travel mode choice, policy intervention

摘要：

将“无节制使用私家车出行”视为一种社会困境，将通勤者群体作为研究对象，构建考虑社会互动效应的出行方式选择行为模型，使用问卷调查方法收集资料，分析集体行为的多重均衡状态.利用阈值理论分析集体行为实现均衡转移的临界值，进而对消除劣势均衡所应出台的政策干预进行定量评估.研究发现：在进行出行选择时，个体之间存在着强社会互动；通过政策干预使个体选择公共交通出行的效用增加量略大于0.695 时，原本僵持在劣势均衡的公交出行比例(13.1%)会转移至多数人选择公交出行(72.3%)的优势均衡状态，从而缓解社会困境.研究结果对于交通管理政策及措施的制定有一定的参考价值.

关键词: 城市交通, 社会互动, 阈值理论, 出行选择行为, 政策干预