Abstract:

This paper examined the delay at pull- out bus stops based on the time and space characteristics, the probability theory, and kinematics principles. The bus delay at the bus bay was classified into different stages and the factors that cause delays were qualitatively analyzed. The process of bus approaching and leaving the bus bay were analyzed and the bus operations along the route were also included in the analysis. The delay time model was developed to describe the delays for bus approaching, stopping, and leaving the stations. The model also considers the scenarios of single- berth and multiple- berth stations. The bus operation data from four stations in Yuhua District of Changsha China were collected and used for the empirical studies. The delay curve was created and the calculated delay time was compared with the field delay time, with an analysis of impact factors. The results indicate that: the bus delay at bus bay increases exponentially with the increase of bus arrival frequency. The bus delay follows a logarithmic function when the number of boarding/alighting passengers increases. When the traffic volume in adjacent travel lanes increases, the bus delay increases in approximately a parabola curve.

Key words: traffic engineering, delay time, probability theory, pull-out bus stop, M/Ek /1(N) mode

摘要：

基于车辆运行特性，从时空和微观的角度，运用概率论、运动学原理和 M/Ek /1(N) 排队模型，对港湾式公交站车辆的延误问题进行研究.将公交在港湾站台的延误按阶段分类并定性分析延误的主要影响因素，分析公交车辆进出站台及在站台内外运行过程和机理，构建公交进站延误时间、停靠延误时间及出站延误时间模型，推导单泊位和多泊位站台的公交延误模型.采集长沙市雨花区4个站点的公交运行数据，绘制延误变化趋势，并将计算值与实测延误时间进行比较，分析影响因素.结果表明，公交在港湾式站台的延误随公交到达率增大呈指数增长，随上下车乘客数增多呈对数函数增长，随相邻车道流量增大呈递增的抛物线增长.

关键词: 交通工程, 延误时间, 概率论, 港湾式公交停靠站, M/Ek /1(N) 模型