Abstract:

In order to study the risk of undervalued or overvalued inflation in highway PPP projects and the countermeasures, this paper proposes revenue adjustment methods, including revenue compensation and excess revenue sharing, based on the regular adjustment of toll. The methods consider the changes caused by inflation in both operation cost and the time value of money. The revenue adjustment can effectively ensure the income in the project when inflation is underestimated. It can also avoid the private sector to obtain excess income when inflation is overestimated, which will damage the social benefit. The net payment of the government on revenue adjustment is mainly affected by demand price elasticity and revenue adjustment share proportion. When the users' perceived price decreases, the elasticity of demand price and the net present value of the project increases, but the net payment of the government will decrease. With a larger proportion of revenue adjustment, the government shares a larger inflation risk, and its net payment will also increase.

Key words: transportation economy, revenue adjustment, Monte Carlo, highway, inflation rate

摘要：

为研究公私合营(Public-Private Partnerships, PPP)项目中通货膨胀被低估或高估带来的风险及应对方法，以高速公路为研究对象，考虑通货膨胀引起的运营成本和货币时间价值变化，在通行费价格定期调整的基础上，提出通货膨胀下的收入调节方法，包含收入补偿和超额收入共享。研究发现，收入调节能有效地在通货膨胀被低估时保障项目收入，在被高估时避免社会资本方获得超额收入，损害社会效益。政府在收入调节上的净支出主要受需求价格弹性和收入调节分担比例影响，当使用者感知价格下降时，需求价格弹性越大，项目净现值越大，政府净支出越低；收入调节分担比例越大，意味着政府分担通货膨胀风险越多，政府净支出越多。

关键词: 交通运输经济, 收入调节, 蒙特卡洛, 高速公路, 通货膨胀