Abstract: The CO2 emission from aircraft at the airport is one of the major sources of CO2 emission in the civil aviation industry. Achieving the peak of aircraft CO2 emission as early as possible would help to accelerate the development of green civil aviation. This study uses the improved ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) aircraft emission method to calculate the aircraft CO2 emission in 2019 in Xiamen Gaoqi International Airport as an example. Then, the scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation are used to predict the peak of aircraft CO2 emission at Xiamen airport. The results show that: aircraft CO2 emission during landing and take- off cycles at Xiamen airport was 338 thousand tons in 2019 and the maximum would reach as high as 453 thousand tons in 2035. In the scenario with green development and technological breakthrough in the civil aviation industry, aircraft CO2 emission can reach the peak before 2035, and the technological breakthrough scenario helps to achieve the CO2 emission peak earlier than the scenario of green development and the peak value is lower. Aircraft taxiing time and biofuel substitution rate are the most important factors that affect the peak of CO2 emission. The aircraft CO2 emission at airports can be reduced by optimizing surface operation and providing more airport planning and guidance, so as to achieve the peak of airport aircraft CO2 emission successfully and early.

Key words: air transportation, CO2 emission peak, scenario analysis, CO2 emission, landing and take-off cycle, Monte Carlo simulation

摘要： 机场的航空器碳排放是民航碳排放的主要来源之一，早日实现机场航空器碳排放达峰有 助于加快推进绿色民航建设。以厦门高崎国际机场为例，首先采用改进的ICAO方法测算了2019 年机场航空器碳排放量；然后，运用情景分析与蒙特卡洛模拟方法预测了厦门机场航空器碳排放 达峰可能性、峰值与影响因素。结果表明：2019年厦门机场航空器在起降循环阶段共产生碳排放 33.8万t，2035年碳排放最多可达45.3万t；在绿色发展和技术突破情景下，2035年前均可实现航 空器碳排放达峰，且技术突破情景下达峰更早、峰值更低；航空器滑行时间和生物燃油替代率是 碳达峰的最重要影响因素；机场可从优化场面运行、加强规划引领等方面减少机场航空器碳排 放，实现机场航空器碳排放顺利达峰、早日达峰。

关键词: 航空运输, 碳达峰, 情景分析, 碳排放, 起降循环, 蒙特卡洛模拟