Abstract: At present, some domestic cities have implemented a "motorcycle prohibition" scheme in some areas, and the different motorcycle prohibition scheme will have different impacts on the mode split and route choices in the transportation system. To quantify the user's multi-mode travel choice behavior under the motorcycle prohibition scheme, this paper considers the different travel characteristics of private cars, public transport and motorcycles, and develops a multi-mode equilibrium model based on the motorcycle prohibition scheme. First, a composite network with the three modes of mixed traffic is designed, and according to the different characteristics of the road sections capacity the congestion in the public transport, and the route selection, the travel cost functions are established for three modes in prohibited areas and non-prohibited areas. Then, the corresponding mathematical programming model is constructed based on the user equilibrium and Logit mode split. The model is solved by a path allocation algorithm based on successive averages, and the user travel efficiency and crash risk under the motorcycle prohibition scheme are analyzed quantitatively. The result shows that with the increase of prohibited areas, the number of motorcycle users transferred to private cars and public transportation gradually increased, the total travel cost of users has gradually increased, and the travel efficiency and crash risk cost have gradually decreased. The implementation of the motorcycle prohibition scheme on the key road sections can effectively reduce the total crash risk while has less impact on user's travel efficiency.

Key words: urban traffic, motorcycle restriction, multi-class user equilibrium, crash risk, travel efficiency

摘要： 目前国内许多城市对部分区域实施“禁摩”政策，不同禁行方案的实施对交通系统中出行者方式和路径选择产生差异化影响。为定量描述摩托车禁行方案下的用户多模式出行选择行为，本文考虑私家车、常规公交及摩托车这3种模式的不同网络出行特征，构建基于摩托车禁行方案的多模式网络均衡模型。首先，设计3种模式混行下的复合交通网络，根据其不同的路段通行能力特征，以及公交车内拥挤和线路选择，分别针对禁行区域和非禁行区域，建立用户出行成本函数；然后，基于用户均衡和Logit模式划分，构建相应的数学规划模型。最后，采用基于相继平均的路径配流算法求解模型，并量化分析摩托车禁行方案下的用户出行效率和事故风险。算例 结果表明，随着禁行区域的增大，转移至私家车和常规公交的摩托车用户逐渐增加，用户总出行成本逐渐增加，出行效率和总事故风险成本逐渐降低，同时，对关键路段实施禁行方案能在较少降低用户出行效率的基础上有效降低总事故风险成本。

关键词: 城市交通, 摩托车禁行, 多模式用户均衡, 事故风险, 出行效率