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Multi-objective Path Optimization for Multimodal Transport Considering Uncertainty in Transfer Time
YAN Shuaishuai, PAN Shuai, HAN Baoming
2026, 26(4):
79-88.
DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2026.04.007
In practical transportation, the transshipment time associated with different transport mode conversions at each node
exhibits significant uncertainty, which increases the complexity of multimodal transport path optimization and poses challenges to
carriers' decision-making. This study investigates the multi-objective path optimization for multimodal transport considering
uncertain transshipment times, and develops a multi-objective optimization model aiming to minimize transportation cost,
transportation time, and carbon emissions. To characterize the uncertainty of transshipment time, sample data are first tested for
normality, and uncertain transshipment times are simulated using a combination of Latin hypercube sampling and the inverse
cumulative distribution function. Furthermore, to address the issues of premature convergence and loss of population diversity in
the traditional NSGA-II algorithm when solving high-dimensional, the multi-objective, and multi-constraint problems, adaptive
crossover and mutation operators are introduced to dynamically adjust the crossover and mutation probabilities based on the fitness
status of the population. The search flexibility is improved at different evolutionary stages and the quality and convergence
performance of the Pareto solution set is enhanced. A case study is conducted based on the multimodal transport network for
exports from Heilongjiang Province to Russia. The results show that the compromise solution yields a transportation cost of
52 138.7 yuan, a transportation time of 26.3 hour, and carbon emissions of 4 964.8 kg. Compared with the standard NSGA- II
algorithm, the improved algorithm reduces transportation cost and transportation time by 1 690.5 yuan and 13.4 hour, respectively.Moreover, compared with the deterministic transshipment time condition, the model under uncertainty tends to select solutions
with fewer transshipments and shorter transportation times, albeit at the expense of increased transportation cost and carbon
emissions by 8 705.5 yuan and 1 675.7 kg, respectively. In addition, Jiamusi, Fujin, and Tongjiang are identified as high-frequency
transshipment nodes, and rail-to-water transshipment is a key operation. Prioritizing the optimization of these nodes and their
transshipment operations can effectively improve the overall efficiency of multimodal transport. The findings provide references
for path decision-making in multimodal transport.
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