公交优先条件下小汽车出行向公交转移的预测模型研究

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2009, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (6): 120-129 .

公交优先条件下小汽车出行向公交转移的预测模型研究

VEDAGIRI P. ^*1; ARASAN V.T. ²

1.印度理工学院孟买分校土木工程系，印度孟买 400076; 2.印度理工学院马德拉斯分校土木工程系，印度钦奈 600036

收稿日期:2009-07-06 修回日期:2009-10-19 出版日期:2009-12-25 发布日期:2009-12-25
通讯作者: VEDAGIRI P.
作者简介:VEDAGIRI P.，男，博士.

Estimating Modal Shift of Car Travelers to Bus on Introduction of Bus Priority System

VEDAGIRI P. ^*1; ARASAN V.T. ²

1.Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400076, India; 2.Transportation Engineering Division, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai 600036, India

Received:2009-07-06 Revised:2009-10-19 Online:2009-12-25 Published:2009-12-25
Contact: VEDAGIRI P.

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 研究印度城市道路上设置公交专用道后小汽车出行向公交转移的可能性. 借助新的混合交通流仿真模型测定设置公交专用道后公交服务水平改善状况. 基于陈述偏好入户调查的抽样数据，本文还引入其他影响出行方式转移的变量，标定出行方式选择二元Logit模型. 根据实际和预测数据，确定了公交服务水平改善条件下小汽车出行向公交转移的一系列主要影响因素. 基于两种方式出行时间差，绘制出行方式转换概率曲线，并为多变量宽值域条件下交通方式转移的预测提供一种易于操作的方法.

关键词: 公共交通, 混合交通流, 出行时间, 公交专用道, 出行方式选择模型

Abstract: This study is concerned with estimation of the probable shift of car users to bus due to increase in its level of service after providing exclusive bus lanes on Indian city roads carrying heterogeneous traffic. The quantum of increase in level of service of bus due to introduction of exclusive bus lane was determined using a recently developed simulation model of heterogeneous traffic flow. The data of the other factors (variables) that might cause modal shift from car to bus were collected through home-interview survey based on the stated preference approach. A binary Logit model of mode-choice was then calibrated using the collected data and the model was also validated using holdout sample. Through this study, a set of causal factors, with reliable and predictable data base, to explain the variation in shift behaviour of personal vehicle users to buses consequent on the increase in the level of service of buses, has been identified. A mode-choice probability curve to depict the possible modal shift of car users to bus is developed, taking the difference in travel times of the two-modes as the basis to serve as a user friendly tool to analyze the possible modal shift for a wide range of values of the involved variable.

Key words: public transportation, heterogeneous traffic, travel time, exclusive bus lane, mode choice models

中图分类号:

VEDAGIRI P., ARASAN V.T. . 公交优先条件下小汽车出行向公交转移的预测模型研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2009, 9(6): 120-129 .

VEDAGIRI P., ARASAN V.T. . Estimating Modal Shift of Car Travelers to Bus on Introduction of Bus Priority System[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2009, 9(6): 120-129 .

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

链接本文: http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/abstract/abstract17903.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2009/V9/I6/120

参考文献

［1］Gebeyehu M, Takano S. Modelling the relationship between seasonal constraints and modal choice characteristics of high school students in snowy region［J］. Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 2005, 6: 844-1857.

［2］Rao S B S. Sequential binary mode choice models for urban travel to work［J］. Highway Research Bulletin, Indian Road Congress, Highway Research Board, 1993, 48: 91-107.

［3］Arasan V T, Rengaraju V R, Rao K V K. Trip characteristics of travelers without vehicles［J］. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 1996, 122(1): 76-81.

［4］Ghareib A H. Evaluation of logit and probit models in mode-choice situation［J］. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 1996, 127(4): 282-290.

［5］Hamed M, Easa S M. Integrated modeling of urban shopping activities［J］. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 1998, 124(3): 115-131.

［6］Tischer M L, Dobson R. An empirical analysis of behavioral intentions of single-occupant auto drivers to shift to high occupancy vehicles［J］. Transportation Research A, 1979, 13: 43-158.

［7］Alvinsyah, Soehodho S, Nainggolan P J. Public transport user attitude based on choice model parameter characteristics (case study: Jakarta bus way system)［J］. Journal of Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 2005, 6: 480-491.

［8］Nurdden A, Rahmat R A, Ismail A. Effect of transportation polices on modal shift from private car to public transport in Malaysia［J］. Journal of Applied Sciences, 2007, 7(7): 1013-1018.

［9］Gebeyehu M, Takano S. Diagnostic evaluation of public transportation mode choice in Addis Ababa［J］. Journal of Public Transportation, 2007, 10(4): 27-50.

［10］Fillone A M, Montalbo C M, Tiglao N C. Transport mode choice models for metro manila and urban transport policy applications［J］. Journal of Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 2007, 6: 480-491.

［11］Hensher D A, Reyes A J. Trip chaining as a barrier to the propensity to use public transport［J］. Transportation, 2000, 27(4): 341-361 ［12］Mackett R L. Why do people use their cars for short trips［J］. Transportation, 2003, 30(3): 329-349.

［13］Arasan V T, Koshy R Z. Methodology for modeling highly heterogeneous traffic flow［J］. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 2005, 131(7): 544-551.

［14］Indian Road Congress (IRC). Guidelines for capacity of urban roads in plain areas［R］. IRC: 106, New Delhi, India, 1990.

［15］Ypma T J. Historical development of the Newton-Raphson method［J］. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) Review, 1995, 37(4): 531-551.

［16］Ortuzar J D, Willumsen L G. Modelling transport［M］. 3rd Edn, John Wiley & Sons Ltd., England, 2001.

[1]	毛保华, 王敏, 何天健, 陈海波. 城市公共交通服务水平研究回顾和展望[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2022, 22(1): 2-13.
[2]	彭飞，宋国华，朱珊. 城市公共交通常乘客通勤出行提取方法[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2021, 21(2): 158-165.
[3]	朱顺应，刁成良，肖文彬，陈秋成，王红. 城市景点的公共交通出行便捷性指数: 基于武汉市的调查研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2021, 21(1): 169-175.
[4]	郭晨，王建军，霍月英，邱志宣. 基于出行不均匀分布的通达型公交网络[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2021, 21(1): 176-182.
[5]	林鹏飞，翁剑成，胡松，荆云琪，尹宝才. 公共交通乘客个体活动链的日相似性研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2020, 20(6): 178-183.
[6]	孙世超. 考虑乘客情感价值影响的公交忠诚度评价方法[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2020, 20(4): 158-165.
[7]	白同舟，蔡乐，朱家正，林旭. 轨道交通与城市协同发展的空间差异性分析：以北京市为例[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2020, 20(3): 14-19.
[8]	薛运强，郭俊，安静，薛逻维，桑梓. 公交线路配车问题的不确定双层规划模型[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2020, 20(2): 145-150.
[9]	何明卫，梁洁，帅春燕，何保红. 公交候车时间容忍阈值的分布特征及影响因素[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2019, 19(5): 231-235.
[10]	梁军，徐鹏，蔡英凤，陈龙，华国栋. 面向混合交通流的智能网联车鸣笛意图识别模型[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2019, 19(4): 55-62.
[11]	邝先验，陈自如. 设置非机动车等候区的信号交叉口交通流模型[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2019, 19(4): 179-186.
[12]	吴玲玲，黄正东. 基于多样性的大城市公共交通服务水平研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2019, 19(1): 222-227.
[13]	柳伍生，贺剑，李甜甜，谌兰兰. 出行策略与行程时间不确定下的公交客流分配方法[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2018, 18(6): 117-124.
[14]	刘永红，李进龙，陈欣，罗霞. 先进出行信息下事故对行程时间可靠性的影响[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2018, 18(3): 36-41.
[15]	鲍谚，张帝，姜久春，冯然. 公共交通双源无轨电车电源系统承载能力计算方法[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2018, 18(3): 74-80.