交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2016, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (1): 135-141.

• 系统工程理论与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

有限理性下个体出发时间选择行为研究

栾琨*1,2，傅忠宁2，隽志才2   

  1. 1. 淮阴工学院管理工程学院，江苏淮安223003；2. 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院，上海200052
  • 收稿日期:2015-09-06 修回日期:2015-12-07 出版日期:2016-02-25 发布日期:2016-02-25
  • 作者简介:栾琨（1977-），女，吉林白山人，讲师，博士后.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学青年基金项目/National Natural Youth Science of China (71403096)；江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学 基金项目/Jiangsu Education Department University Philosophy and Social Science Fund Program（2013SJD630005）；住房和城乡 建设部科学技术计划项目/Department of Housing and Urban-rural Development Science and Technology Plan Program（2013- k5-4）

Departure Time Choice Behavior Based on Bounded Rationality

LUAN Kun1,2，FU Zhong-ning2，JUAN Zhi-cai2   

  1. 1. School of Management Engineering, Huaiyin Institute of Technology, Huai’an 223003, Jiangsu, China; 2. Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200052, China
  • Received:2015-09-06 Revised:2015-12-07 Online:2016-02-25 Published:2016-02-25

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被引次数

1

摘要：

个体受限于认知能力和逻辑推理能力的限制，在出行决策过程中很难做到完 全理性.本文以出发时间选择为例，在有限理性行为假设基础上，引入空间知识获取、学习 及认知更新和方案搜索等关键行为要素，构建有限理性下的出行决策过程理论框架.融合 RP和SP 调查方法，设计出发时间选择行为意向调查方案.研究个体知识的表达方式，应 用贝叶斯学习理论完成认知更新.定义搜索成本和收益函数，利用调查数据分别提取基于 PART 和RIPPER 算法的出发时间启发式搜索规则和决策规则.结果表明，有限理性下个 体出发时间选择行为存在感知阈值，而并非寻求全局最优解.

关键词: 系统工程, 有限理性, PART算法, RIPPER算法, 出发时间选择, 出行决策

Abstract:

Subject to such limitations as cognitive ability and logical reasoning ability, it is difficult for individual to be perfectly rational in the travel decision-making process. Taking departure time choice as an example, key behavior factors such as spatial knowledge acquisition, learning, cognition update and solution search are introduced. The theoretical framework of travel decision- making process is built based on bounded rationality. Departure time behavioral intention survey program is designed by integration of RP and SP survey methods. Individual’s knowledge representation is studied, and cognitive update is completed by using Bayesian learning theory. Functions of search cost and search gain are defined. By using survey data, departure time heuristic search rules and decision rules are derived based on PART and RIPPER algorithm separately. The results show that there exist perception threshold in individual’s departure time choice behavior under bounded rationality, rather than seeking global optimal solution.

Key words: system engineering, bounded rationality, PART algorithm, RIPPER algorithm, departure time choice, travel decision-making

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