旅客购票模式与渠道关联选择行为的建模分析

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2019, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (3): 176-181.

旅客购票模式与渠道关联选择行为的建模分析

李军^{1, 2}，贾顺平^*1，王瑜琼¹，张思佳¹

1. 北京交通大学交通运输学院，北京 100044；2. 中国交通通信信息中心，北京 100011

收稿日期:2018-12-25 修回日期:2019-02-16 出版日期:2019-06-25 发布日期:2019-06-25
作者简介:李军(1979-)，男，山东宁津人，高级工程师，博士生.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金/National Natural Science Foundation of China(71390332，71621001-3).

Modeling Analysis of Related Choice for Passenger Ticketing Mode and Channel

LI Jun^{1, 2}, JIA Shun-ping¹, WANG Yu-qiong¹, ZHANG Si-jia¹

1. School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China; 2. China Transport Telecommunications & Information Center, Beijing 100011, China

Received:2018-12-25 Revised:2019-02-16 Online:2019-06-25 Published:2019-06-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为分析多元化售票渠道下旅客购票选择行为的影响因素及交互特征，解析了多渠道情境下旅客购票过程的 3个阶段，辨识了旅客购票的 3类典型模式；运用协同进化分析思想，建立了购票模式与渠道关联选择的协同进化 Logit模型；基于道路客运联网售票信息系统数据，进行了模型的实证应用，分析了特征变量对旅客购票选择行为的影响，揭示了渠道与模式间关联选择行为特征.研究表明：性别，年龄，提前购票时间，出行时间，出行里程，发车频率等因素对旅客购票行为有显著影响；旅客购票模式和渠道选择间存在相关性，某一决策选择受另一决策结果的影响；考虑两者的交互作用有助于提高分析预测精度，2类决策模型的精度分别提高了5.98%和5.72%.

关键词: 综合交通运输, 旅客运输, 购票行为, 协同进化Logit模型, 道路客运, 关联选择

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to analyze the characteristics and factors of passengers ticketing behavior under a multiple channel ticketing strategy. Ticketing process was divided into three stages. Ticketing path was identified into three typical modes. A co-evolutionary Logit model was developed considering the interdependencies of multi- channels and multi-modes. Based on the data of networking ticketing system of the road passenger transportation, the model was empirically applied. The influences of characteristic variables for road passenger ticketing were revealed. The combined choice characteristics between mode and channel were also revealed. The findings show that the factors, including passenger gender, age, advance time of ticketing, trip time, trip mileage, and coach frequency, influence the ticketing choice and preference. There is a correlation between ticketing channel and mode choice. The determination of ticketing channel choice is affected by mode decision. It is beneficial for improving the accuracy of the ticketing behavior by considering the interdependencies between the channel and the mode choice. The accuracy of the mode and channel choice models is improved by 5.98% and 5.72% respectively.

Key words: integrated transportation, passenger transportation, ticketing behavior, co- operative evolutionary Logit model, road passenger transportation, related choice

中图分类号:

U492.4

李军，贾顺平，王瑜琼，张思佳. 旅客购票模式与渠道关联选择行为的建模分析[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2019, 19(3): 176-181.

LI Jun, JIA Shun-ping, WANG Yu-qiong, ZHANG Si-jia. Modeling Analysis of Related Choice for Passenger Ticketing Mode and Channel[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2019, 19(3): 176-181.

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链接本文: http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/abstract/abstract19852.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2019/V19/I3/176

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