考虑时间不确定的东北亚—欧洲多式联运路径优化

doi:10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2026.02.001

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2026, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (2): 1-10.DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2026.02.001

• 综合交通运输体系 • 下一篇

考虑时间不确定的东北亚—欧洲多式联运路径优化

王清斌^*，梁瑛昊，郑建风

大连海事大学，交通运输工程学院，辽宁大连116026

收稿日期:2025-08-14 修回日期:2025-11-13 接受日期:2025-11-14 出版日期:2026-04-25 发布日期:2026-04-20
作者简介:王清斌（1970—），男，辽宁铁岭人，副教授，博士。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(72031005)。

Optimization of Multimodal Transport Routes Between Northeast Asia and Europe Considering Time Uncertainty

WANG Qingbin^*,LIANG Yinghao,ZHENG Jianfeng

College of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, Liaoning, China

Received:2025-08-14 Revised:2025-11-13 Accepted:2025-11-14 Online:2026-04-25 Published:2026-04-20
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (72031005)。

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 东北亚与欧洲经贸往来密切，中欧班列的快速发展为两地提供了除海运外的陆路运输新选择，两区域之间多式联运网络发展迅速，路径选择日益多样化。针对东北亚—欧洲多式联运网络中存在的中转时间和铁路口岸停留时间不确定性问题，本文以总成本、总时间和总碳排放最小化为目标，构建多目标路径优化模型。利用梯形模糊数刻画中转时间和铁路口岸停留时间的不确定性，通过模糊机会约束规划对模型进行去模糊化。对此，设计了适用于本问题的非支配排序遗传算法（NSGA-II），并以釜山—汉堡的集装箱运输为实例进行验证。结果表明，优化所得的路径方案能够很好地兼顾成本、时间和碳排放；对海运运价的灵敏度分析显示，当海运运价上涨超过特定阈值时，多式联运经营人对海铁联运的偏好程度将显著提升；随着时间置信水平的提高，最优路径将从海铁联运转变为全程海运运输。本文为跨境物流企业应对多式联运路径决策中的不确定性提供了参考。

关键词: 综合交通运输, 路径优化, 非支配排序遗传算法, 多式联运, 模糊机会约束

Abstract: East Asia and Europe maintain close economic and trade ties, and the rapid development of the China-Europe freight train has provided a new land-based transportation option for the two regions beyond maritime shipping. The multimodal transport network between the two regions has developed rapidly, with an increasing diversity of route options. Addressing the issues of uncertainty in transit times and railway border crossing dwell times within the East Asia-Europe multimodal transport network, this paper constructs a multi-objective path optimization model with the objectives of minimizing total cost, total time, and total carbon emissions. Trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are used to characterize the uncertainty in transit time and railway border crossing dwell time, and fuzzy opportunity constraint programming is employed to defuzzify the model. A non- dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) suitable for this problem is designed, and the model is validated with a container transport example from Busan to Hamburg. The results show that the optimized route schemes effectively balance cost, time, and carbon emissions. Further sensitivity analysis of sea freight rates shows that when sea freight rates rise above a specific threshold, the preference of multimodal transport operators for sea-rail intermodal transport significantly increases. Additionally, as the time confidence level increases, the optimal route shifts from sea-rail intermodal transport to all-sea transport. This study provides a reference for cross border logistics companies in addressing uncertainty in multimodal transport route decision-making.

Key words: integrated transportation, path optimization, non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm, multimodal transport, fuzzy chance constraint

中图分类号:

U116.2

王清斌, 梁瑛昊, 郑建风. 考虑时间不确定的东北亚—欧洲多式联运路径优化[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2026, 26(2): 1-10.

WANG Qingbin, LIANG Yinghao, ZHENG Jianfeng. Optimization of Multimodal Transport Routes Between Northeast Asia and Europe Considering Time Uncertainty[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2026, 26(2): 1-10.

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考虑时间不确定的东北亚—欧洲多式联运路径优化

Optimization of Multimodal Transport Routes Between Northeast Asia and Europe Considering Time Uncertainty

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