天气影响心理感知时间的出行选择行为研究

doi:10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2026.02.017

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 天气条件作为外部环境的关键要素，显著塑造出行者的主观时间感知并影响其出行决策行为。为捕捉不同天气下出行者的心理感知时间差异，本文拓展传统离散选择模型，通过放松理性人假设，将天气因素引入广义出行成本框架，提出涵盖接入、候车、在途和终端4个阶段的感知时间函数，通过户外走行感知系数与客流拥挤指数，量化天气影响步行舒适性与车内拥挤程度所引发的主观时间感知变化，构建基于累积前景理论的出行选择模型。本文以西安市通勤行为为实证背景，采用遗传算法对模型参数进行标定，将出行者划分为“高社会经济地位家庭型”“低社会经济地位流动型”两类人群。结果表明，基于累积前景理论的出行选择模型准确性更优，可以更细致地刻画不同天气下不同人群的决策选择机理；高社会经济地位人群在恶劣天气下损失厌恶系数显著升高，表现出强烈的损失规避倾向；在重度污染天气下，其风险偏好系数异常升高，反映出因健康关切而驱动的“责任型冒险”行为。低社会经济地位人群则在多数天气条件下保持较高的损失敏感度，呈现“经济驱动型”决策特征；在重度污染天气下，其风险偏好显著降低，决策权重系数急剧升高，显示出对健康风险的高度警觉与理性评估能力。

关键词: 城市交通, 出行选择, 累积前景理论, 天气影响, 心理感知时间

Abstract: As a key element of the external environment, weather conditions significantly shape the subjective perception of time of travelers, and influence their travel decision-making behaviors. To capture the differences in psychological perception of time under various weather conditions, this study integrates weather factors into a generalized travel cost framework to extend traditional discrete choice models by relaxing the rational agent assumption. A perceived time function covering four stages— access, waiting, in-vehicle travel, and egress—is proposed. Furthermore, it introduces an outdoor walking perception coefficient and a passenger crowding index to quantify the changes in subjective time perception caused by weather-related impacts on walking comfort and in-vehicle crowding. A travel choice model based on Cumulative Prospect Theory is developed. Using commuting behavior in Xi'an as an empirical case, the model parameters are calibrated via a genetic algorithm, and travelers are categorized into two groups: "socioeconomically advantaged family-oriented" and "socioeconomically disadvantaged mobile oriented." The results indicate that the travel choice model based on Cumulative Prospect Theory yields superior predictive accuracy, as it can more precisely capture the decision-making mechanisms of different population segments under various weather conditions. Notably, individuals with higher socioeconomic status demonstrated a significant increase in their loss aversion coefficient during adverse weather, exhibiting a strong tendency for loss avoidance. Conversely, under severe pollution conditions, their risk preference coefficient showed an anomalous rise, reflecting a "responsibility-driven risk-taking" behavior motivated by heightened health concerns. In contrast, the socioeconomically disadvantaged group maintains a high sensitivity to losses under most weather conditions, demonstrating the characteristics of "economically driven" decision-making. However, under heavily polluted weather, their risk preference decreases markedly, while the decision weight coefficient increases sharply, revealing a high level of alertness to health risks and a capacity for rational risk assessment.

Key words: urban transportation, travel mode choice, cumulative prospect theory, weather impact, psychological time perception

中图分类号:

U491

于江霞, 祝思岳, 王欣彤, 罗太波. 天气影响心理感知时间的出行选择行为研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2026, 26(2): 180-191.

YU Jiangxia, ZHU Siyue, WANG Xintong, LUO Taibo. Impact of Weather on Travel OL Choice Behavior Through Psychological Time Perception[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2026, 26(2): 180-191.

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链接本文: http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2026.02.017

http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2026/V26/I2/180

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