小汽车依赖异质性下通勤定制公交选择行为

doi:10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2026.04.002

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2026, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (4): 17-27.DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2026.04.002

小汽车依赖异质性下通勤定制公交选择行为

钟华^1a，闫学东^*2，王云^1a，刘晓冰^1b，刘子乐^1a，孙一特^1a

1. 北京交通大学，a. 交通运输学院，b. 系统科学学院，北京 100044；2. 西南交通大学，交通运输与物流学院，成都 610031

收稿日期:2026-03-18 修回日期:2026-05-04 接受日期:2026-05-06 出版日期:2026-08-25 发布日期:2026-08-22
作者简介:钟华（2000－），女，吉林吉林人，博士生
基金资助:
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金 (2025YJS184)；国家自然科学基金 (72288101)

Customized Commuter Bus Choice Behavior Under Heterogeneous Car Dependence

ZHONG Hua^1a, YAN Xuedong^*2, WANG Yun^1a, LIU Xiaobing^1b, LIU Zile^1a, SUN Yite

1a. School of Traffic and Transportation, 1b. School of System Science, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China; 2. School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China

Received:2026-03-18 Revised:2026-05-04 Accepted:2026-05-06 Online:2026-08-25 Published:2026-08-22
Supported by:
Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of Ministry of Education of China (2025YJS184)；National Natural Science Foundation of China (72288101)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 既有通勤者定制公交选择行为的研究忽略了小汽车依赖的异质性，缺乏针对不同小汽车依赖群体的定制公交需求响应策略。本文基于问卷数据按小汽车依赖度将通勤者细分为低、中、高这3类群体，通过构建条件Logit模型系统检验社会经济属性与出行属性对定制公交选择意愿的影响，进行耦合小汽车依赖异质性的通勤者定制公交选择行为机理挖掘。结果显示：3类群体的用户画像存在差异，教育水平对选择定制公交的正向作用呈梯度增强，收入效应在各群体间表现出明显异质性，工作时间柔性对各群体选择意愿均具有显著影响，且作用方向随小汽车依赖群体发生转向。在出行属性方面，高峰时段对选择意愿具有最强促进作用，尤以中等依赖群体最为显著。不同群体的关注重点亦不相同，低、中、高依赖群体分别对拥堵时间、通勤费用和步行时间更为关注，低依赖群体愿意为节省拥堵时间多支付1.3元·min-1，高依赖群体愿意为减少步行时间多支付0.8元·min-1。本文提出面向不同小汽车依赖度通勤者的分层化、差异化和精准化的定制公交推广与定价策略，以提升定制公交吸引力，降低对小汽车的过度依赖，缓解通勤压力，进而促进城市交通系统的可持续发展。

关键词: 城市交通, 通勤出行行为, 条件Logit模型, 定制公交, 小汽车依赖

Abstract: The existing studies on the choice behavior of the commuter of customized bus ignore the heterogeneity of car dependence, and lack the strategies of customized bus demand response for commuter groups with different car dependence. Based on the survey data, commuters are classified into three groups—low, medium, and high car dependence. A conditional Logit model is used to systematically examine the effects of socio-demographic and travel attributes on the willingness to choose the customized buses. It is also used to explore the customized bus choice behavior mechanism of commuters considering the car dependence heterogeneity. The results indicate that the user profiles are different among the three groups. The positive impact of education level on the choice of customized bus increases progressively, while the income effects exhibit notable heterogeneity across groups. Flexible working hours significantly influence the willingness to choose customized buses for all groups, and the effect direction reverses depending on car dependence levels. Regarding travel attributes, peak hours have the strongest positive impact on the willingness to choose, especially for the medium dependence group. The key concerns of different groups also vary: low, medium, and high dependence groups prioritize congestion time, commuting costs, and walking time, respectively. The low-dependence group is willing to pay an additional 1.3 yuan per minute to save on congestion time, while the high-dependence group is willing to pay an additional 0.8 yuan per minute to reduce walking time. This paper proposes a stratified, differentiated and precise customized bus promotion and pricing strategy tailored to commuters with varying car dependence levels, aiming to enhance the appeal of customized buses, and reduce the excessive reliance on private cars, alleviate commuting pressure, and promote the sustainable development of urban transportation systems.

Key words: urban transportation, commuting behavior, conditional Logit model, customized bus, car dependence

中图分类号:

U491.1

钟华, 闫学东, 王云, 刘晓冰, 刘子乐, 孙一特. 小汽车依赖异质性下通勤定制公交选择行为[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2026, 26(4): 17-27.

ZHONG Hua, YAN Xuedong, WANG Yun, LIU Xiaobing, LIU Zile, SUN Yite. Customized Commuter Bus Choice Behavior Under Heterogeneous Car Dependence[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2026, 26(4): 17-27.

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http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2026/V26/I4/17

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小汽车依赖异质性下通勤定制公交选择行为

Customized Commuter Bus Choice Behavior Under Heterogeneous Car Dependence

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