交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2026, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (4): 355-367.DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2026.04.031

• 智慧机场运营管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

空轨融合下轨道交通站区低空航空器运行对地风险评估方法

陈恩惠a, b，季柯羽a, b，朱兴一a, b，滕靖*a, b   

  1. 同济大学，a. 道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室；b. 交通学院，上海 201804
  • 收稿日期:2026-04-16 修回日期:2026-06-03 接受日期:2026-06-23 出版日期:2026-08-25 发布日期:2026-08-21
  • 作者简介:陈恩惠（1993— ），男，江苏徐州人，助理教授
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金 (52402388)

Ground Risk Assessment Method for Low-Altitude Aircraft Operations in Rail Transit Station Areas Under Air-Rail Integration

CHEN Enhuia, b, JI Keyua, b, ZHU Xingyia, b, TENG Jing*a, b   

  1. a. The Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of Ministry of Education; b. College of Transportation, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China
  • Received:2026-04-16 Revised:2026-06-03 Accepted:2026-06-23 Online:2026-08-25 Published:2026-08-21
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China (52402388)

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摘要： 为研判轨道交通站区低空适航性，提出适配小型和大型航空器运行对地风险评估方法框架，围绕“失效-撞击-破坏”的多事件耦合风险链，针对小型航空器，建立站区受人口分布与出入口客流分布影响下人员暴露风险概率、人员伤亡概率及道路交通风险概率的测算模型；对于大型航空器，在上述风险要素基础上进一步整合杀伤体积、建筑容积率及建筑物体积等关键参数，建立大型航空器失效下站区建筑物破坏风险概率测算模型；引入站区禁飞区空间约束对风险场进行修正，利用空间聚合算法，构建面向城市区域的风险空间分异图谱。以上海轨道交通1号线和3号线为案例，结果显示：小型航空器地面风险概率主要受人口密度与道路环境影响，高风险区集中于轨道交通出入口及周边主要道路；大型航空器风险概率还受建筑密度和体积的显著影响，建筑密集区风险概率显著上升；城市站点集群风险概率中，11%的车站小型航空器运行处于无风险范围，91%的车站大型航空器运行处于高风险范围；航空器杀伤面积是决定对地风险水平的核心要素，其次，对小型航空器为道路面积，对于大型航空器为建筑体积。研究成果可为空轨融合下轨道站区设施布局及航路规划提供风险量化支撑。

关键词: 城市交通, 对地风险概率, 风险评估方法, 轨道站区, 空轨融合, 风险图谱

Abstract: To assess the low-altitude airworthiness of rail-transit station areas, this paper proposes a ground- risk assessment framework for small and large aircraft operations. The framework focuses on a multi-event coupled risk chain of "failure-impact-damage". For small aircraft, probability calculation models are developed to account for human exposure risk, casualty risk, and road-traffic risk in station areas under the influence of population distribution and entrance/exit passenger-flow distribution. For large aircraft, key parameters are further integrated considering the above risk factors. The key parameters include lethal volume, floor area ratio, and building volume. A probability calculation model is established for building-damage risk in station areas under large-aircraft failure. Spatial constraints of station-area no-fly zones are incorporated to modify the risk field. A spatial aggregation algorithm is used to construct a risk spatial-differentiation map for urban areas. Shanghai Rail Transit Line 1 and Line 3 were taken as the case studies. The results suggest that small-aircraft ground-risk probability is mainly affected by population density and the road environment, and high-risk zones are concentrated at station entrances/exits and surrounding primary roads. Large-aircraft risk probability is also significantly affected by building density and building volume, and risk probability in building-dense areas increased significantly. In terms of the risk probability of urban station clusters, 11% of stations are within the no-risk range for small-aircraft operations, whereas 91% of stations are at the high-risk level for large-aircraft operations. The lethal area of the aircraft is the core element determining the ground-risk level, followed by road area for small aircraft and building volume for large aircraft. The findings can provide quantitative risk support for facility layout and route planning in rail-transit station areas under air-rail integration

Key words: urban transportation, ground risk probability, risk assessment method, rail-transit station area, air-rail integration, risk map

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