交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2026, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (5): 210-226.DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2026.05.018

• 智能交通系统与信息技术 • 上一篇    下一篇

考虑多维服务感知与计划行为的定制公交出行意向传导机制

陈德启1 ，杨鑫霞1 ，张文会*1 ，霍欣然2 ，潘福全3   

  1. 1. 东北林业大学，土木与交通学院，哈尔滨150040；2.吉林大学，交通学院，长春130000； 3. 青岛理工大学，土木工程学院，山东青岛266520
  • 收稿日期:2026-01-23 修回日期:2026-04-20 接受日期:2026-04-24 出版日期:2026-10-25 发布日期:2026-10-21
  • 作者简介:陈德启（1990—），男，黑龙江哈尔滨人，讲师。
  • 基金资助:
    黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目 (23GLC022)；国家自然科学基金(52572369)。

Transmission Mechanism of Customized Public Transportation Travel Intention Based on Multi-dimensional Service Perception and Planned Behavior

CHEN Deqi1,YANG Xinxia1, ZHANG Wenhui*1, HUO Xinran2, PAN Fuquan3   

  1. 1. School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China; 2. School of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun 130000, China; 3. School of Civil Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266520, Shandong, China
  • Received:2026-01-23 Revised:2026-04-20 Accepted:2026-04-24 Online:2026-10-25 Published:2026-10-21
  • Supported by:
    Heilongjiang Province Philosophy and Social Science Research Planning Project (23GLC022)；National Natural Science Foundation of China (52572369)。

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摘要： 为深入揭示定制公交乘客出行意向形成机理，本文基于计划行为理论框架（Theory of Planned Behavior, TPB），引入多维服务感知潜状态（Service perception, SP），构建考虑多维服务感知与计划行为的贝叶斯结构方程模型（Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling, BSEM）。从观测算子、状态映射算子与层级传导算子这3个层面刻画乘客出行意向形成机理。研究结果显示，在心理认知向行为意向映射层中，知觉行为控制的映射强度最大，主观规范次之，态度相对较弱；层级传导分析表明，安全性具有最大的跨层级传导强度，经济性呈双通道传导结构，可靠性通过社会规范扩散影响，方便性属于能力约束型因素，舒适性表现为弱信号因素。进一步的多特征维度异质性分析表明，不同群体的意向形成机制存在显著差异：通勤群体更偏向约束驱动型，而非通勤群体更偏向评价驱动型；中低收入群体更关注成本约束与使用便利，中高收入群体则更重视安全保障与服务可靠性。同时，将本文构建的SP+TPB-BSEM模型与SP-BSEM、TPBBSEM及TAM-BSEM（Technology Acceptance Model-Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling）模型进行对比，结果显示，SP+TPB-BSEM模型的解释力R2相对传统TPB模型提升了39.1%，且在预测性能方面，其广泛适用信息准则（Widely Applicable Information Criterion, WAIC）的预期对数预测密度（expected log predictive density, elpd）指标与留一交叉验证（Leave-One-Out, LOO）的elpd指标均表现最优，证实了将服务感知因素纳入心理决策框架的必要性。研究表明，定制公交出行意向的形成呈现显著的分层传导结构特征，不同服务感知潜状态通过差异化心理通道产生结构性影响，为定制公交服务的优化提供系统化的理论依据与实践路径。

关键词: 城市交通, 层级潜状态, 贝叶斯结构方程模型, 定制公交, 出行意向, 服务感知

Abstract: To deeply study the formation mechanism of passengers' travel intentions for customized public transportation, this paper proposes a Bayesian structural equation model (BSEM) based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) framework, multi dimensional service perception latent states (SP), and multi-dimensional service perception and planned behavior. The formation mechanism of passengers' travel intentions is depicted from three levels: observation operator, state mapping operator, and hierarchical transmission operator. The research results show that in the mapping layer from psychological cognition to behavioral intention, the mapping intensity of perceived behavioral control is the greatest, followed by subjective norms, and attitude is relatively weak. There is significant heterogeneity in the mapping channel from service perception latent state to psychological cognition latent state, and different service attributes exert their effects through differentiated psychological paths. In the hierarchical transmission analysis, safety has the greatest cross-level transmission intensity, economy has a dual-channel transmission structure, reliability is influenced through social norms diffusion, convenience belongs to the capacity constraint factor, and comfort is manifested as a weak signal factor. Further multi-dimensional heterogeneity analysis reveals significant differences in the intention formation mechanisms among different groups: commuters are more likely to be affected by various constraints, while non-commuters lean towards evaluation-driven mechanisms. The low-to-middle-income groups pay more attention to cost constraints and use convenience, whereas the medium-to-high-income groups value safety guarantees and service reliability more. At the same time, by comparing the proposed model with the SP-BSEM, TPB-BSEM, and TAM-BSEM models, the results show that the explanatory power R2 of the proposed model relative to the traditional TPB model has increased by 39.1%. In terms of prediction performance, its WAIC-elpd and LOO-elpd indicators are the best, confirming the necessity of incorporating service perception factors into the psychological decision-making framework. The research indicates that the formation of travel intentions for customized public transportation shows significant hierarchical transmission structure characteristics. Different service perception latent states exert structural influences through differentiated psychological channels, providing systematic theoretical basis and practical paths for the optimization of customized public transportation services.

Key words: urban transportation, hierarchical latent state, Bayesian structural equation model, customized public transportation, travel intention, service perception

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