交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2007, Vol. 7 ›› Issue (1): 25-28 .

• 综合交通运输体系论坛 • 上一篇    下一篇

电动自行车对城市交通结构的影响预测模型研究

毛霖1 ，杨新苗2，马泽丹2，常玉林 1   

  1. 1. 江苏大学汽车与交通工程学院，江苏 镇江 212013；2. 清华大学土木工程系交通研究所北京 100084
  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2007-02-24 发布日期:2007-02-24

Research on Forecasting Model of Influence of E-bike
on Urban Traffic Structure

MAO Lin1 , YANG Xin-miao2, MA Ze-dan2, CHANG Yu-lin1   

  1. 1. School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Jiangsu University, Jiangsu Zhenjiang 212013, China；
    2. Transportation Institute of Civil Engineering Department, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2007-02-24 Published:2007-02-24

PDF

摘要： 近几年，电动自行车在中国发展迅速，已经对我国城市交通结构产生了深远的影响。本文根据马尔可夫分析法的基本原理，建立起电动自行车的方式分担预测模型。在此基础上，以石家庄市为例，通过实地调研分析该市居民现有的交通方式和转移意向。然后，假设在放任、限制、适度控制三种场景下，根据不同的交通方式转移概率，预测未来几年石家庄市电动自行车的方式分担率。并对预测结果进行分析，从而为各城市制定电动自行车的相关政策提供决策依据。

关键词: 电动自行车, 马尔可夫链, 交通方式转移, 方式分担预测模型

Abstract: In recent years, electric bicycle is developing rapidly in China, and has exerted a profound influence on urban traffic structure. According to the basic principle of Markov Analysis, forecasting model of e-bike mode share is established in this paper. On the basis of it, take Shijiazhuang for example, current traffic mode share and transfer intention of residents in Shijiazhuang are analyzed by field survey. Then, in case of three situations: non-restriction, restriction, proper control, and according to different mode transfer probability, mode share of e-bike in Shijiazhuang in the next several years would be forecasted and analyzed, which could offer decision-making support for cities to establish relevant policy of e-bike.

Key words: electric bike, Markov Chain, traffic mode transfer, mode-share forecasting model