交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2009, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (1): 117-121 .

• 系统工程理论与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于信息熵的能源消费结构演变分析

田志勇;关忠良* ;王思强   

  1. 北京交通大学 经济管理学院, 北京 100044
  • 收稿日期:2008-06-11 修回日期:2008-09-17 出版日期:2009-02-25 发布日期:2009-02-25
  • 通讯作者: 关忠良
  • 作者简介:田志勇(1973-),男,河北人,博士生.

Evolution of Energy Consumption Structure Based on Information Entropy

TIAN Zhi-yong; GUAN Zhong-liang; WANG Si-qiang   

  1. School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044,China
  • Received:2008-06-11 Revised:2008-09-17 Online:2009-02-25 Published:2009-02-25
  • Contact: GUAN Zhong-liang

摘要: 由于影响因素的复杂性,国家能源消费结构的研究大多是以简单的比例关系结合定性分析为主,缺乏定量评价的客观依据。本文尝试利用信息熵理论以最大信息熵原理为判断准则,研究衡量能源消费结构的定量方法来试图解决这一问题。首先简要介绍了信息熵理论,再在能源消费结构的分析中引入信息熵,并构建了均衡度和优势度指标,用于衡量能源消费结构及其演变,然后利用该方法进行简单实证,分析了该方法的可行性。通过对2001~2006年间中国的能源消费结构的熵值特征指标的动态分析发现,在只考虑各类能源探明储量为影响因素的简化情况下,煤炭的消费比例并不是制约因素,因此,在此情况下能源规划和发展应该充分重视提高煤炭利用效率和清洁利用的研究。

关键词: 能源消费结构, 信息熵, 均衡度, 优势度

Abstract: The researches on national energy structure are based on the simple ratio relationship and qualitative analysis for the complexity of affecting factors. The paper tries to fill the gap by studying the energy consumption structure by informational entropy theory and the principle of Maximum Informational Entropy. It introduces informational entropy theory briefly first, and then introduces it into the energy consumption structure research and designs the indicators of equilibrium and dominance degree to describe energy consumption structure quantitatively. In the end, the paper provides a simple demonstration that takes proved reserves into consideration to analyze the feasibility of the method. The demonstration analyzes the changes of the entropy indicators of China energy consumption between 2001 and 2006, and finds that much coal consumption is not the controlling matter. So it is important to research on improving coal efficiency and clean utility in energy planning and development on this condition.

Key words: energy consumption structure;informational entropy;equilibrium degree, dominance degree

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