灾害条件下运输中断引起的生产损失估算模型

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2009, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (2): 134-140 .

灾害条件下运输中断引起的生产损失估算模型

王玉明;毛保华^*;关伟;高自友

北京交通大学城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室. 北京100044

收稿日期:2008-04-30 修回日期:2008-11-20 出版日期:2009-04-25 发布日期:2009-04-25
通讯作者: 毛保华
作者简介:王玉明（1969-），男，江苏徐州人，博士生.
基金资助:
973计划项目课题（2006CB705507）和教育部创新团队项目（IRT0605）.

Estimations on production losses of due to transportation interruption with natural disasters

WANG Yu-ming;MAO Bao-hua;GUAN Wei;GAO Zi-you

MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory & Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044

Received:2008-04-30 Revised:2008-11-20 Online:2009-04-25 Published:2009-04-25
Contact: MAO Bao-hua

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 自然灾害经常造成运输过程中断，其损失的评估是一项十分重要而复杂的工作。本文从灾害造成的运输中断时间出发，对时间价值的内涵进行了分析；将灾害引起的运输中断及其导致的生产价值损失时间分为两个波及区，即生产人员损失价值和库存中断造成的损失价值。通过引入资源时间价值概念，分析了灾害中断运输所造成的直接与间接经济损失内涵，建立了基于资源时间价值的运输线路中断后社会生产价值损失估算模型，并结合算例给出了损失计算方法。本文研究可以为运输企业计算灾害带来的自身直接经济损失以及运输中断后引起的社会间接经济损失提供一种定量分析与估算方法。

关键词: 自然灾害, 资源时间价值, 运输中断, 生产损失, 经济评估

Abstract: It is difficult but important to estimate the indirect losses caused by transportation interruption during natural disasters. The paper discusses the meaning of the value of time based on the duration of transportation interruption during disasters. The production losses are analysed from two aspects: the loss value of production staff and the loss created by repertory interruption. The contents of direct and indirect losses are also analyzed by introducing the resource value of time. The paper develops an estimation model on production losses due to transportation interruption with natural disasters, and further documents its computational method by practical examples. The paper provides a potential quantitative estimation method both for determining the direct economic losses of transportation enterprises due to disasters and the social indirect losses caused by transportation interruption during natural disasters.

Key words: natural disaster;resource value of time, interrupted transportation, losses of production, economic evaluation

中图分类号:

U298

王玉明,毛保华,关伟,高自友. 灾害条件下运输中断引起的生产损失估算模型[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2009, 9(2): 134-140 .

WANG Yu-ming,MAO Bao-hua,GUAN Wei,GAO Zi-you. Estimations on production losses of due to transportation interruption with natural disasters[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2009, 9(2): 134-140 .

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

链接本文: http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/abstract/abstract17799.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2009/V9/I2/134

参考文献

[1] 我们该如何反思南方雪灾[N]，北京商报，2008-2-21.

[2] 铁道部.广州地区2月1日滞留的旅客数量为40多万[EB/OL]，新华网：http://news.xinhuanet.com/poli- tics/2008-02/01/content_7544627.htm,accessible on 2008-2-1.

[3] 交通运输：陆路、航空数据月刊[EB/OL].http://www.ts108.com/Article/2008_3/Article81522_1.html accessible on 2008-3-12.

[4] 我们需要什么样的预见性[EB/OL], http://www.bjbusiness.com.cn/site1/bjsb/page/1/2008-02- 21/05/8319 1203526122718.pdf, ,accessible on 2008.2.21.

[5] Lemke. K M, The Economic Impacts of Rail Mergers and Abandonments on Kansas Export Wheat Rail Rates and Costs[D]. Kansas State University.1989.

[6] Cho S B, Gordon P, Moore II J E, et al. Integrating transportation network and regional economic models to estimate the costs of a large urban earthquake[J], Journal of Regional Science, 2001,41(1):39-65.

[7] Kasikitwiwat. P, Capacity Reliability and Capacity Flexibility of A Transportation Network [D], Dissertation Abstracts International, 2004,66(4): B:2211-2369.

[8] Anderson C W, Courain D J, Edmonds P A,et al. A risk-based methodology for modeling, assessing, and managing risks to the Hampton roads bridge tunnels [C], Systems and Information Engineering Design Symposium, 2005 IEEE 29 April 2005:34 – 39.

[9] Abdel-Rahim A, Oman P, Johnson.B K, et al. Assessing surface transportation network component criticality: a multi-layer graph-based approach[C], Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference, ITSC 2007, IEEE, 2007:1000-1003.

[10] 李亚楠, 张燕, 马成东. 我国海洋灾害经济损失评估模型研究[J]. 海洋环境科学, 2000, 19(3): 60–63. [LI Ya-nan, ZHANG Yan, MA Cheng-dong. Economics losses damage assessment model for marine disaster[J]. Marine Environmental Science, 2000, 19(3): 60–63.]

[11] 冯平, 崔广涛, 钟昀. 城市洪涝灾害直接经济损失的评估与预测[J]. 水利学报, 2001, 8: 64–68. [FENG Ping, CUI Guang-tao, ZHONG Yun. On the evaluation and prediction of urban flood economic loss[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2001, 8: 64–68.]

[12] 常晋义，朱博勤，张渊智，等. 地震灾害潜在损失评价模型分析与研究[J]. 遥感技术与应用, 2002, 17(3): 129–134. [CHANG Jin-yi, ZHU Bo-qin, ZHANG Yuan-zhi, et al. Research about potential loss assessment models for seismic hazards[J]. Remote Sensing Technology and Application, 2002, 17(3): 129–134.]

[13] 刘静, 王连喜, 马力文, 等. 中国西北旱作小麦干旱灾害损失评估方法研究[J]. 中国农业科学, 2004, 37(1): 201–207. [LIU Jing, WANG Lian-xi, MA Li-wen, et al. A loss estimation method of monitoring and estimating the yield loss of wheat by drought in dry farming areas in northwest of China[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2004, 37(1): 201–207.]

[14] 吴红华, 李正农. 灾害损失评估的三参数区间数模糊综合评判法[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2008, 17(5): 64–69. [WU Hong-hua, LI Zheng-nong. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of disaster loss assessment based on interval numbers of three parameter[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2008, 17(5): 64–69.]

[15] 毛保华, 李震, 金安. 运输线路中断损失评估模型研究[J].电子科技大学学报, 1997, 26(增刊), 820-822. [MAO Bao-hua, LI Zhen, JIN an. Appraisal modeling for losses interruption on transport lines[J]. Journal of Electronic Science and Technology of China, 1997, 26(Sup), 820-822.]

[16] 魏庆朝, 万传凤, 曾学贵. 交通运输生命线灾害经济效益损失计算[J]. 自然灾害学报, 1999, 8(1): 96–102. [WEI Qing-chao, WAN Chuan-feng, ZENG Xue-gui. Calculation of economic benefit losses on communication and transport lifeline disaster[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 1999, 8(1): 96–102.]

[17] 刑俊义, 张于心, 鲍枫, 等. 铁路灾害线路通过能力损失评估模型[J]. 灾害学, 2000, 15(1): 16–20. [YING Jun-yi, ZHANG Yu-xin, BAO Feng,et al. A study on assessment model of line carrying capacity loss in railway disaster[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2000, 15(1): 16–20.]

[18] Frank E K. The Value of Saving Travel Time: Departmental Guidance for Conducting Economic Evaluations[R], U.S. Department of Transportation, 1997.

[19] 李雄, 刘光才, 颜明池, 等. 航班延误引发的航空公司及旅客经济损失[J]. 系统工程, 2007, 25(12), 20-23. [LI Xiong, LIU Guang-cai, YAN Ming-chi, et al. The economic loss of airlines and passengers caused by flight delays[J]. Systems Engineering, 2007, 25(12), 20-23.]

[20] 赵胜川, 王喜文, 张羽祥, 等. 私家车出行者通勤出行时间价值[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2009, 9(1): 109–112. [ZHAO Sheng-chuan, WANG Xi-wen, ZHANG Yu-xiang, et al. Value of drivers’ commuting travel time[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2009, 9(1): 109–112.]

[21] 邹良东, 毛保华, 金安. 我国公路旅行时间价值的应用模型研究[J]. 内蒙古公路与运输, 1996, (4): 35–36. [ZOU Liang-dong, MAO Bao-hua, JIN an. Application model of value of travel time for China Highway[J]. Highways & Transportation in Inner Mongolia, 1996, (4): 35–36.]

[22] Mao B H. Appraisal Modeling the Value of Travel Time[C]// Proceedings of the 2nd HKSTS, Hong Kong, 1997.