交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2017, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (3): 26-31.

• 综合交通运输体系论坛 • 上一篇    下一篇

交通运输、经济增长与碳排放之间的互动关系研究 ——基于PVAR 模型

蔡婉华1,2，叶阿忠*1   

  1. 1. 福州大学经济与管理学院，福州350108；2. 福州大学至诚学院，福州350002
  • 收稿日期:2016-09-30 修回日期:2017-01-08 出版日期:2017-06-25 发布日期:2017-06-26
  • 作者简介:蔡婉华(1986-)，女，福建泉州人，博士生.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金/National Natural Science Foundation of China(71571046，71171057)；教育部高等学院博士点基金/Ministry of Education Higher College Doctoral Program Fund(20103514110009)；教育部人文社科基金/Ministry of Education of Humanities and Social Science Fund(10YJA790227，12CJY011).

Interactive Relationship among Transportation, Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions Based on PVAR Model

CAIWan-hua 1,2, YE A-zhong 1   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350108, China； 2. Zhicheng College, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350002, China
  • Received:2016-09-30 Revised:2017-01-08 Online:2017-06-25 Published:2017-06-26

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摘要：

选取2000—2014 年中国30 个省市的面板数据，通过面板协整检验和PVAR模型实证，研究了交通运输、经济增长与碳排放之间的互动关系.结果表明：全国范围内交通运输、经济增长与碳排放之间存在长期的均衡关系，且两两之间的互动效应呈现倒U型；高经济区的碳排放对经济增长的影响显著，交通运输和碳排放对经济增长存在单向影响关系；低经济区交通运输对经济增长的刺激作用明显，碳排放随着经济增长和交通运输水平提升显著增长.

关键词: 交通运输经济, PVAR 模型, 广义矩估计, 脉冲响应, 方差分解

Abstract:

With the provincial panel data of thirty provinces during the period of 2000 to 2014 in China and by using the co- integration equation and PVAR model, this paper explores the interactive relationships among transportation industry, economic growth and carbon emissions. The results indicate that a long-term balanced relationship among transportation industry, economic growth and carbon emissions, and dynamics effects like inverted U. It can be seen that it advantaged to expand the economic growth by stimulating much more increase carbon emissions in high economic provinces. But it exists unidirectional relationships among transportation, carbon emissions and economic growth. And it stimulates the change of economic growth is conductive to promote the level of transportation. With the economic growth and the improvement of transportation, carbon emission increased significantly in low economic provinces.

Key words: transportation economy, PVAR model, Generalized method of moments, impulse response, variance decomposition

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