交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2018, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (2): 7-12.

• 决策论坛 • 上一篇    下一篇

习惯影响下城际出行方式选择意向形成机理

李军 1a, 2,贾顺平*1a, 1b,钱剑培 1a,王瑜琼 1a,张思佳 1a   

  1. 1. 北京交通大学 a. 城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室,b. 交通运输学院,北京 100044; 2. 中国交通通信信息中心 交通运输信息化标准研究所,北京 100011
  • 收稿日期:2017-11-10 修回日期:2018-03-05 出版日期:2018-04-25 发布日期:2018-04-25
  • 作者简介:李军(1979-),男,山东宁津人,高级工程师,博士生.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金/National Natural Science Foundation of China(71390332, 71621001-3).

Intention Formation Mechanism in the Intercity Travel Mode Choice Influenced by the Habit

LI Jun1a, 2, JIA Shun-ping1a,1b, QIAN Jian-pei1a, WANG Yu-qiong1a, ZHANG Si-jia1a   

  1. 1a. MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, 1b. School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China; 2. Institute of Transportation Information Standardization, China Transport Telecommunications & Information Center, Beijing 100011, China
  • Received:2017-11-10 Revised:2018-03-05 Online:2018-04-25 Published:2018-04-25

摘要:

旅客在出行选择决策中存在依赖经验而不愿意进行新尝试的习惯行为倾向,研究分析旅客在选择普铁、大巴和高铁 3种城际出行方式行为中的习惯影响程度及意向形成机理. 本文在对习惯进行定义和测量的基础上,引入习惯潜变量改进计划行为理论,构建习惯与意向间关系的结构方程模型.模型标定结果显示,对于普铁、大巴和高铁3种城际出行方式,各潜变量对意向总的解释方差分别为71.9%、54.9%、62.3%,习惯对意向解释的总效应分别为0.538、0.851、0.538,其中间接效应分别为0.538、0.513、0.258.分析结果表明:城际出行方式选择中存在明显的习惯倾向,其中相对于直接影响,间接影响效应更强;3种出行方式中,大巴的选择受习惯影响最明显.

关键词: 综合交通运输, 方式选择, 结构方程, 城际出行, 习惯倾向, 影响机理

Abstract:

Passengers have a tendency that trust their experience and wouldn’t have a try in travel decision making process. This paper studies the intention formation mechanisms and effects of the habit in the intercity mode choice among railway, bus and high-speed railway. Based on the definition and psychological test, the habit is introduced to improve the theory of planned behavior as a latent variable. Three structural equation models are built to examine the relationships between the habit and the intention. Results shows that the explained variance of the intention contributed by the latent variables are up to 71.7%, 54.9% and 62.3% in the choice of railway, bus and high-speed railway separately. The total effects on the intention explained by the habit are 0.538, 0.851 and 0.538, while the indirect effects are 0.538, 0.513 and 0.258 respectively. It is indicated that there is an obvious habitual tendency in the choice of intercity travel mode. The habit has direct and indirect effects on the intention, and the latter is stronger. The choice of bus is significantly influenced by the habit.

Key words: integrated transportation, mode choice, structural equation model, intercity travel, habit tendency, influence mechanism

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