交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2020, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (2): 33-40.

• 综合交通运输体系论坛 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国民航飞机大气污染物排放测算及预测分析

费文鹏1, 2，熊羚利3，欧阳斌* 2，卞雪航2，宋国华1   

  1. 1. 北京交通大学交通运输学院，北京 100044；2. 交通运输部科学研究院，北京 100029； 3. 中国民航工程咨询有限公司，北京 100621
  • 收稿日期:2019-10-15 修回日期:2019-12-17 出版日期:2020-04-25 发布日期:2020-04-30
  • 作者简介:费文鹏(1989-)，男，重庆奉节人，助理研究员，博士生.
  • 基金资助:

    中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费/ Central Public-Interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund (20180105，20190111，20180102).

Calculation and Prediction Analysis of Air Pollutant of Civil Aviation Aircraft in China

FEIWen-peng1,2, XIONG Ling-li3, OUYANG Bin2, BIAN Xue-hang2, SONG Guo-hua1   

  1. 1. School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China; 2. China Academy of Transportation Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; 3. China Civil Aviation Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd, Beijing 100621, China
  • Received:2019-10-15 Revised:2019-12-17 Online:2020-04-25 Published:2020-04-30

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摘要：

民航是我国重要运输方式之一，但相对于道路等其他运输方式，有关民航飞机对大气污染物排放测算及预测的研究较少. 基于国际通用的油流量法及LTO循环法对我国民航飞机HC、CO、NOx、SO2和细颗粒物排放进行测算及预测，并进行实证分析. 结果表明，我国民航飞机油耗及污染物排放整体呈上升趋势，油耗预计2040 年达到峰值11 826 万t.2018 年，HC， CO，NOx，SO2，PM2.5，PM10排放分别达到11 167，86 785，1 260 131，63 264，11 149，11 359 t，排放强度分别为0.09，0.72，10.44，0.52，0.09，0.09 g/(t ·km).HC 排放在2010 年达到峰值15 433 t， CO 预计将在2025 年达到峰值141 038 t，NOx 和SO2 排放预计在2040 年达到峰值，分别为 235.35万t，11.83万t.

关键词: 航空运输, 预测分析, 油流量法, 大气污染物, 峰值

Abstract:

Although civil aviation is an important transportation mode in China, there are relatively few studies on calculation and prediction of air pollutant emissions from the civil aviation aircrafts. Based on the international fuel flow and LTO (Landing and Take-off) cycle method, this paper calculates and predicts the air pollutant emissions such as HC, CO, NOx, SO2 and fine particulate matter for China civil aviation. The empirical analysis results show that the fuel consumption and air pollutant emissions of civil aviation aircraft in China are increasing gradually, and the fuel consumption is expected to reach a peak of 118.26×106 ton in 2040. The emissions of HC, CO, NOx, SO2, PM2.5 and PM10 are respectively 11 167 ton, 86 785 ton, 1 260 131 ton, 63 264 ton, 11 149 ton and 11 359 ton in 2018. Moreover, the corresponding emission intensities of HC, CO, NOx, SO2, PM2.5 and PM10 are respectively 0.09, 0.72, 10.44, 0.52, 0.09 and 0.09 gram/(ton · kilometer). The HC emissions reached a peak of 15 433 ton in 2010. The CO emissions are expected to reach a peak of 141 038 ton in 2025. The NOx and SO2 emissions are expected to reach the peak of 2.353 5×106 ton and 0.118 3×106 ton in 2040, respectively.

Key words: air transportation, prediction analysis, fuel flow method, air pollutant, peak

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