关键词: 交通工程, 延误时间, 概率论, 港湾式公交停靠站, M/Ek /1(N) 模型

Abstract:

This paper examined the delay at pull- out bus stops based on the time and space characteristics, the probability theory, and kinematics principles. The bus delay at the bus bay was classified into different stages and the factors that cause delays were qualitatively analyzed. The process of bus approaching and leaving the bus bay were analyzed and the bus operations along the route were also included in the analysis. The delay time model was developed to describe the delays for bus approaching, stopping, and leaving the stations. The model also considers the scenarios of single- berth and multiple- berth stations. The bus operation data from four stations in Yuhua District of Changsha China were collected and used for the empirical studies. The delay curve was created and the calculated delay time was compared with the field delay time, with an analysis of impact factors. The results indicate that: the bus delay at bus bay increases exponentially with the increase of bus arrival frequency. The bus delay follows a logarithmic function when the number of boarding/alighting passengers increases. When the traffic volume in adjacent travel lanes increases, the bus delay increases in approximately a parabola curve.

Key words: traffic engineering, delay time, probability theory, pull-out bus stop, M/Ek /1(N) mode