关键词: 城市交通, 动态决策, 决策场理论, 通勤选择行为, 异质性

Abstract:

Traditional methods pay little attention to the dynamics of the decision- making process and the micropsychological preferences of residents. This paper applies a latent class model to represent the potential heterogeneity in the commuting decision-making process. Then, from the perspective of dynamic decision-making, the decision field theory model is constructed, which can reflect the dynamic evolution of preference. The model sets different attribute attention weights for different subgroups, which can represent the heterogeneities of users' dynamic preferences in different subgroups and the similar but different characteristics in the same subgroup. Meanwhile, it can simultaneously implement user classification, analyze the decision-making process and improve the deficiency of traditional decision field theory in characterizing individual preference heterogeneity, based on which an empirical study of residents near rail transit stations in Chengdu is conducted. The results show that the residents can be subdivided into four types: business demand subgroup, efficiency demand subgroup, economy- preference subgroup, and conservative subgroup. There exist significant differences between subgroups in the initial preference and attention weights for attributes. The simulation realizes the prediction of decision-making results, the demonstration of the evolution process of individual micro- preferences, and the irrational effect in the process of attribute change, thus verifying the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Key words: urban traffic, dynamic decision making, decision field theory, commuting mode choice behavior, heterogeneity