网络抽象视角下干线送达时间可靠度无参估计方法

doi:10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2025.02.013

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (2): 138-145.DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2025.02.013

网络抽象视角下干线送达时间可靠度无参估计方法

栾建霖^*，游蕊齐，王斯妮，贾鹏

大连海事大学，综合交通运输协同创新中心，辽宁大连116026

收稿日期:2024-12-04 修回日期:2024-12-23 接受日期:2025-01-09 出版日期:2025-04-25 发布日期:2025-04-20
作者简介:栾建霖(1989—)，男，辽宁大连人，副教授，博士。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金 (72404044)。

Estimation of Mainline Freight Delivery Time Reliability from an Abstract Network Perspective

LUAN Jianlin^*,YOU Ruiqi,WANG Sini,JIA Peng

Transportation Collaborative Innovation Center, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, Liaoning, China

Received:2024-12-04 Revised:2024-12-23 Accepted:2025-01-09 Online:2025-04-25 Published:2025-04-20
Supported by:
Young Scientists Fund of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72404044)。

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为更准确地估计干线货运送达时间可靠度，本文利用货车轨迹数据，提出一种基于抽象网络的送达时间可靠度无参估计方法。首先，利用单位根检验-三西格玛规则(AugmentedDickey-Fuller-3sigma,ADF3sigma)识别停车点并应用层次密度聚类算法(HDBSCAN)构建抽象网络节点。在此基础上，采用轨迹聚类算法(TRACLUS)进行轨迹聚类构建抽象网络边，形成干线货运抽象网络。然后，利用改进的科尼什-费希尔展开(Improved-Cornish-Fisher, ICF)无参方法估计抽象网络边的通行时间分布。最后，对运输路径上连续边的通行时间分布进行傅里叶变换得到送达时间可靠度估计。基于浙江地区的真实货车轨迹数据对该框架进行验证，结果表明，在68%的边上，ICF无参估计方法的边通行时间分布估计精度优于现有基于假设分布的方法。基于抽象网络进行送达时间可靠度估计可比基于真实网络的平均计算时长减少80%，送达时间可靠度估计准确度提升60%。

关键词: 物流工程, 送达时间可靠度估计方法, 抽象网络, 送达时间可靠度, 货车轨迹数据

Abstract: To accurately estimate the delivery time reliability of mainline trunk freight transportation, this paper proposes a non parametric estimation method for delivery time reliability based on an abstract network, utilizing truck trajectory data. Firstly, parking points are identified using the ADF-3sigma method, and the HDBSCAN algorithm is employed to construct the abstract network vertices. Subsequently, the TRACLUS algorithm is used for trajectory clustering to construct the abstract network edges, forming the abstract network of mainline trunk freight. Then, a non-parametric estimation method, the Improved-Cornish-Fisher (ICF) approach, is applied to estimate the travel time distribution of the abstract network edges. Finally, the Fourier transform of the travel time distribution on consecutive edges of the transport path is performed to estimate the delivery time reliability. The proposed framework is validated using real truck trajectory data from Zhejiang Province. The results demonstrate that in terms of the accuracy of edge travel time distribution estimation, the ICF non-parametric estimation method outperforms existing methods based on assumed distributions on 68% of the edges. Furthermore, the use of an abstract network for delivery time reliability estimation reduces the average computation time by 80% compared to methods based on real networks, while improving the accuracy of delivery time reliability estimation by 60%.

Key words: logistics engineering, delivery time reliability estimation method, abstract network, delivery time reliability, truck trajectory data

中图分类号:

U125

栾建霖, 游蕊齐, 王斯妮, 贾鹏. 网络抽象视角下干线送达时间可靠度无参估计方法[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2025, 25(2): 138-145.

LUAN Jianlin, YOU Ruiqi, WANG Sini, JIA Peng. Estimation of Mainline Freight Delivery Time Reliability from an Abstract Network Perspective[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2025, 25(2): 138-145.

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http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2025/V25/I2/138

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网络抽象视角下干线送达时间可靠度无参估计方法

Estimation of Mainline Freight Delivery Time Reliability from an Abstract Network Perspective

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