路径冗余性对行程时间可靠性的影响分析

doi:10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2025.03.013

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (3): 142-151.DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2025.03.013

• 智能交通系统与信息技术 • 上一篇下一篇

路径冗余性对行程时间可靠性的影响分析

祝静静，许项东^*

同济大学，道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室，上海201804

收稿日期:2025-03-01 修回日期:2025-03-25 接受日期:2025-04-18 出版日期:2025-06-25 发布日期:2025-06-20
作者简介:祝静静(1988— )，女，安徽淮北人，博士生。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(71971159, 72471176)。

Impact of Path Redundancy on Travel Time Reliability

ZHU Jingjing, XU Xiangdong^*

Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China

Received:2025-03-01 Revised:2025-03-25 Accepted:2025-04-18 Online:2025-06-25 Published:2025-06-20
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (71971159, 72471176)。

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 路径冗余性是评估交通网络韧性的重要纬度之一，其能够减少道路中断对交通系统的影响和经济损失。然而，尚不清楚路径冗余性在出行者日常出行中的价值和作用。本文试图从出行者视角在区域范围内验证路径冗余性对起始地和目的地(Origin-Destination, OD)之间行程时间可靠性的影响效应。基于2023年4月26日—5月9日收集到的上海市徐汇区路网实时行程时间数据，本文对高路径冗余性OD对的行程时间可靠性与基于倾向得分匹配方法(Propensity Score Matching,PSM)确定的低路径冗余性OD对的行程时间可靠性进行比较和回归分析。结果显示：高路径冗余性能有效提升OD行程时间可靠性，但其提升效果具有明显的地区差异，有些地区的提升效果高达7.32%，而有些地区仅为1.94%；同一区域内OD路径冗余的异质性对OD行程时间可靠性具有差异化影响，且OD行程时间可靠性提升效果随路径冗余性的增加呈边际递减性规律。本文研究结果为从出行者视角评估路径冗余性在日常出行中的价值和作用提供了方法和依据，也有助于指导规划者和管理者在有限的资源范围内制定具有针对性、有效性和适度性的道路冗余投资方案。

关键词: 城市交通, 路径冗余性, OD行程时间可靠性, 影响效应, 倾向得分匹配方法

Abstract: Path redundancy is one of important dimensions to evaluate the resilience of transportation networks, which has been widely recognized for reducing the impact and economic losses of road interruptions. However, we are still unclear about the value and role of path redundancy in daily trips of travelers. This study attempts to verify the impact of path redundancy on the travel time reliability among different origin-destination (OD) pairs from the perspective of travelers within a regional scope. Based on real-time travel time data collected in the road network of Xuhui District, Shanghai from April 26, 2023 to May 9, 2023, this study compares the travel time reliability of ODs having high path redundancy with that of ODs having low path redundancy determined by propensity score matching (PSM) method, and then conducts regression analyses. The results show that: (1) the high path redundancy can effectively improve the OD travel time reliability; (2) the improvement effect of high path redundancy on OD travel time reliability has significant regional differences. The improvement effect in some regions is as high as 7.32%, while it is only 1.94% in other regions; (3) the heterogeneity of path redundancy within the same region has a differential impact on the OD travel time reliability, and the improvement effect of OD travel time reliability shows a marginal decreasing trend with the increase of path redundancy. This study provides a method and basis for evaluating the value and role of path redundancy in daily trips from the perspective of travelers, and also helps guide planners and managers to develop targeted, effective, and moderate road redundancy investment plans within limited resources.

Key words: urban traffic, path redundancy, OD travel time reliability, impact effect, propensity score matching

中图分类号:

U121

祝静静, 许项东. 路径冗余性对行程时间可靠性的影响分析[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2025, 25(3): 142-151.

ZHU Jingjing, XU Xiangdong. Impact of Path Redundancy on Travel Time Reliability[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2025, 25(3): 142-151.

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路径冗余性对行程时间可靠性的影响分析

Impact of Path Redundancy on Travel Time Reliability

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