Abstract: Passenger traffic demands forecasting is the basic of road traffic planning. Considering that road traffic planning is a kind of controlling planning generally and developing of urban intersection, traffic demands is different from that of common cities，based on land use planning and the idea of ‘whole control，part adjust’，improved the routine method of four-phase modal，a method of passenger traffic demands forecasting for urban intersection that adapt to the traffic planning lack of present traffic data is introduced.

Key words: urban intersection, passenger traffic forecast, traffic demand

摘要： 客运交通需求预测是道路交通规划的基础.根据开发区道路交通规划一般为宏观控制性规划，及开发区客运交通需求发展不同于一般城市的交通发展的特点，以土地利用规划为基础，按照“宏观控制，局部调整”的预测思路，对常规的“四阶段”模型预测法进行了改进，提出了在没有现状交通出行调查的情况下进行开发区客运交通需求预测的方法.

关键词: 开发区, 客运预测, 交通需求