Abstract: As an important part of traffic forecast and project evaluation of highway, induced traffic has get more and more attention. From the concept of the induced traffic, its mechanism was analyzed in both micro and macro perspective. On the basis of the present calculation method, a multi-linear regression method is given to the regional induced traffic calculation. A calculation model，which is more suitable for the traffic situation in China than the former one, is developed. Using the data of Beijing (1978-2003) for calculation, we find that road miles have a statistically significant relationship with traffic. The result is about 0.17 in the short run and 0.29 in the long run.

Key words: regional traffic, induced traffic, multiple linear regression, elasticity estimate

摘要： 诱增交通量是交通需求预测与交通建设项目评价中的重要组成部分.本文从诱增交通量概念出发，从宏观和微观两个角度阐述了区域诱增交通量产生的机理，分析了现行单个建设项目诱增交通量计算思路的局限性，研究提出了基于区域的诱增交通量计算的多元线性回归模型.论文结合我国的国情，对该模型参数进行了标定，提出了符合中国实际的基于区域诱增交通量计算方法.利用北京地区改革开放之后(1978年至2003年)的数据进行了实例分析，得到了道路建设对交通量的近期影响弹性系数0.17,远期影响弹性系数0.29的结果.

关键词: 区域交通, 诱增交通量, 多元线性回归, 弹性系数