Abstract: Aiming at the shortages of the method of evaluating safety for air traffic management system, this paper establishes a index system based on system engineering principle and idea, where human, facility, environment and managemet are considered as essential factors. Then combining with grey theory, this paper raises a multilevel grey comprehensive evaluation model and gives an evaluate example. The result shows that this method can make more efficiency use of index information, the given comprehensive evaluate value not only describes the safety state but also can make comparison among units. This method is effciency and offers a good reference to more scientific safety evaluation for air traffic management system.

Key words: grey theory, safety evaluation, air traffic management, AHP

摘要： 针对空中交通管理系统安全评价方法中存在的不足，根据系统工程的基本原则和思路，以空中交通管理系统的人员、设备、环境和管理为基本因素，建立了空中交通安全管理系统的评价指标体系，并结合层次分析与灰色理论，提出了空中交通管理系统安全的多层次灰色评价模型，并结合实例进行了实例计算。仿真计算结果表明该方法能更有效地利用评价指标的信息，所给出的综合评价值不仅能用于描述所评价单位的安全状况，还具有横向比较多个单位安全状态的功能，该方法具有较好的可操作性和实用性，对更加科学合理地评价空中交通管理系统安全状态具有参考价值。

关键词: 灰色理论, 安全评价, 空中交通管理, 层次分析法