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20 August 2006, Volume 6 Issue 4 Previous Issue    Next Issue
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Decision-making Forum
Intelligent Transportation System and Information Technology
Systems Engineering Theory and Methods
Forum about Comprehensive Transportation System
Cases Analysis


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Decision-making Forum

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Innovation and Application of Research Methods for Complex Transportation System: Hall for Workshop of MetaSynthetic Engineering and Artificial Transportation System ZHANG Guo-wu 2006, 6(4): 1-8 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (2399KB) ( )   Urban traffic, w ith the complex characteristics of involving many subjects, crossing disciplines and having a large scale, is a CGS(Complex Giant System). The topic of 3rd council conference of“Traffic and Transportation Forum 7+1”is innovation and application of research methods for complex transportation system: HWME (Hall for Workshop of Meta-Synthetic) and Artificial Transportation System. The conference made a further analysis on the topic in four aspects: HWME(Hall for Workshop of MetaSynthetic Engineering).Concepts and frameworks of artificial transportation systems; Qinghai-Tibet Railway comprehensive operation monitoring and control system; policy of coordinating urban trafic supply and demand balance. Meanwhile, from different aspects the conference discussed the innovation and application of research methods for complex transportation system. Related Articles | Metrics

Intelligent Transportation System and Information Technology

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The Study on China’s ITS Development Strategy WANG Xiao-jing, SHEN Hong-fei,WANG Lin 2006, 6(4): 9-12 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (1229KB) ( )   This paper briefly presents the main content and conclusion of the Tenth Five-year National Science & Technology Key Project-the Study on China’s ITS Development Strategy. The study, which is from the angle of overall situation and around the development goal of national comprehensive transportation, makes a thorough analysis on the needs of transportation and important questions. It also objectively evaluates developing levels of inteligent transportation at home and abroad as well as the gap between China and developed countries. It gives guiding ideology, key strategic target of each stage, guarantees and suggestions of China’s inteligent transportation development in the future 10-15 years. The result of the study will provide scientific basis for compiling developing plan of China’s inteligent transportation. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Model of Ring Road Traffic Flow Real-time Dynamic Forecast GUAN Wei,CAI Xiao-lei 2006, 6(4): 13-17 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (1061KB) ( )   Based on BP neural network and RBF neural network, this paper formed a model of urban ring road traffic flow dynamic real-time forecast, and it makes predictions and analysis for the real traffic flow data of the 3er ring road in Beijing to test the validity of the model. The result of the experiment shows that this model has high accuracy. The real-time feature of the algorithm can satisfy the practical forecast system. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Public Transport Priority Based on Automatic Vehicle Monitor Control YANG Qing-fang, DONG Chun-jiao,YANG Zhao-sheng 2006, 6(4): 18-23 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (1277KB) ( )   The paper has analyzed the problem of public transport priority and presented the new theory. The theory is ensured the bus arriving on time, reduced the affection to the other transportation and made a way that was economized to achieve the level of railway transportation. Based on this theory, the paper has constructed the structure frame of the public transport priority system, divided the basic components and defined the functions of components. This paper has given mathematics model as the application condition and discusses the application of this theory in the field of the intelligent public transport. At last we have used VISSIM to simulate this method and analyzed the results. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Assessment Method of RNAV Route Based on DME／DME SUI Dong,WANG Wei,ZUO Ling2 2006, 6(4): 24-28 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (1142KB) ( )   In order to analyze the navigation performance of parallel Area Navigation(RNAV)route between Beijing and Shanghai，this paper develops an improved navigation accuracy algorithm based on calculation method of DME／DME navigation accuracy of international civil aviation organization(ICAO)and characteristic of coordinate system of our country．It determines available area of DME pair by the help of Mapinfo software．The result is that parallel(RNAV)route between Beijing and Shanghai has a possibility of being covered by the available area of multiple DME pairs，and navigation accuracy can be within 3.2 nautical mules，which meets the accuracy requirement of RNP4． References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study of Link Average Speed Estimation Model Based on Probe Vehicle WANG Li, ZHANG Hai, FAN Yao-zu 2006, 6(4): 29-33 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (1042KB) ( )   Link average speed is one of the most important traffic parameters for urban traffic management. In this paper a new link average speed estimation model based on probe data is discussed. After anglicizing the sampling size of the probe for link average speed estimation, the exponentialy smooth model with adaptive weight is built. Because of the link average speed estimation easily influenced by the number of probe vehicles, error tracking signal and probe vehicle number index are introduced to the weight. Then VISSIM simulation on main road is used to evaluation the model and the result shows that even the probe penetration cannot satisfy the requirement of the sampling size, comparing to the arithmetic mean method, the new exponentialy smooth model of this paper can effectively decrease the error and variance of the link average speed estimation. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Study on Variable Message Sign to Publish Traffic Flow Guidance Message HUA Wei,LIN Bo-liang 2006, 6(4): 34-36 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (793KB) ( )   Traffic jam is now a serious problem in many big cities．Using trafic flow guidance may improve this situation to a certain degree；hence many big cities have been vastly installing variable message signs(VMS)to release real-time traffic flow information．But how to express these guidance messages on VMS more effectively and safely? The paper does some quantitative research on frame frequency of VMS，flicker frequency of important information，recognition of graphics and word，etc．Furthermore，some practical advices are proposed，such as relatively fixing display content，outlining urban road network，using color block to denote road area and normalizing the color of display content． References | Related Articles | Metrics

Systems Engineering Theory and Methods

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Study of Bicycle Conversion Coefficient on Urban Road Section WANG Dian-hai,FENG Tian-jun,TAO Zhi-xing,LIANG Chun-yang 2006, 6(4): 37-41 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (1141KB) ( )   Vehicle conversion coefficient is a basic parameter on calculating traffic volume. In order to calculate traffic volume accurately, it is necessary to convert a bicycle into a standard car. The former studied think that the conversion coeficient is 0.2 when a bicycle is converted into a car. But the paper does the research of bicycle conconversion coeficient on urban road section and finds that the conversion coefficient 0.2 is not exact enough on urban road section. There are two forms on city road section, one is that road is not separated; another is separated, so the conversion coefficient should be calculated respectively according to the two forms. The paper puts forward the concept of effective lane-width and established a model of conversion coeficient. And then, taking advantage of survey data in Shijiazhuang city, the paper gives several examples about calculating bicycle conversion coeficient on road which cars and bicycles are separated and on mixed traffic road respectively. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Multilevel Grey Comprehensive Evaluation for Safety of Air Traffic Management DING Song-bin,XU Song-lin 2006, 6(4): 42-46 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (1085KB) ( )   Aiming at the shortages of the method of evaluating safety for air traffic management system, this paper establishes a index system based on system engineering principle and idea, where human, facility, environment and managemet are considered as essential factors. Then combining with grey theory, this paper raises a multilevel grey comprehensive evaluation model and gives an evaluate example. The result shows that this method can make more efficiency use of index information, the given comprehensive evaluate value not only describes the safety state but also can make comparison among units. This method is effciency and offers a good reference to more scientific safety evaluation for air traffic management system. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Reliability Analysis of Urban Transportation Two-Way Road Network Design Problem with System Equilibrium Objective XU Liang, ZHANG Hao-zhi 2006, 6(4): 47-52 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (1393KB) ( )   In reality, traffic planers and administrators will try to well distribute the traffic flow on each road section or change the asymmetric flow on two-way road into even flow by traffic control in order to improve road utilization ratio and alleviate congestions. Thus, it does not need investment for additive road capacity and can make full use of the existing resources. Based on this idea, Zhang and Gao (2006) presented a model of urban transportation two-way road network design with equilibrium objective. But the model objective function just pursues the minimum of system total impedance and traffic flow asymmetry distribution. It is unsuited for network reliability analysis. The paper analyzed the reliability of transportation network respectively under the two objective functions and the result indicated the realocating lane capacity makes connectivity reliability and performance improving. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Comparison and Choice of Discretionary Lane-Changing Models YANG Xiao-bao,ZHANG Ning 2006, 6(4): 53-56 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (1132KB) ( )   Compared to car-following behavior, lane-changing behavior requires to considering more vehicles, the decision-making process is more complicated, and it is described more difficultly. At present, the car-following model research tends to perfect, however, the lane-changing model research is rather lag. Several relatively wideapplied discretionary lane-changing models are firstly introduced. Then, these models are compared from various angles, and choice criterions of discretionary lane-changing models are also presented in this paper. Finaly, this paper looks forward to the future of this research. And it expects to make a referenced effect in the field of correlative research. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Topological Analysis of Urban Public Transportation Network ZHANG Yi,ZHANG Yi,HU Jian-ming 2006, 6(4): 57-61 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (1202KB) ( )   Urban transportation system have always been represented by network models and been researched basing on these models．The paper proceeded from network macro topological features of urban public transportation and divided urban public transportation system into two difierent models，the trafic-1ine network and traffic-station network．It analyzed urban public transportation system by introducing some basic and important topological parameters which were used in network analysis；calculated and analyzed these two network topological parameters．The public transportation system in Beijing is an example．Finally，from the angle of transportation engineering and city planning，some impo rtant perspectives and proposals were disclosed to the public transportation． References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Analysis of Pavement Occupied Effect FENG Shu-min,ZHANG Wei 2006, 6(4): 62-65 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (864KB) ( )   The main function of the pavement is to carter the need of walk traffic while not to affect vehicle flow on the roads. When the pavement is occupied but some room stil left for pedestrians to cross, the room for pedestrians to cross is becoming smaller, the walk of the pedestrians is restricted, the speed is becoming lower and the satisfaction for the pedestrians is reduced. When the pavement is totally occupied, pedestrians use the outboard lanes to make a detour round the occupied pavement. In this situation, pedestrians collide with vehicles and vehicles endanger the safety of pedestrians . They will form a sense of fear and their travel safety will not be guarantee. When the pavement is occupied absolutely, pedestrians occupy vehicle lanes. Thus the passing capacity of the road is reduced; the speed of vehicles becomes lower and the travel delay increases. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Method to Determine the Scale of Urban Park & Ride Sites’Berths Based on the Bi-Level Programming Method CHEN Qun,YAN Ke-fei,WEN Ya,WANG Ren-tao 2006, 6(4): 66-69 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (891KB) ( )   Aiming at how to determine the scale of the urban park & ride sites’ parking berths when traffic volume from out of the city enters downtown city; on the basis of analysis of trip process from outskirt to downtown and for the target of minimizing the total travel expenses (car travel time and public transportation travel time, transfer time, parking fee, etc) of all travel trips (from the outskirt to downtown)，the bi-level programming model is established to determine the scale of urban park & ride sites’ parking berths and the solution algorithm of the model is presented. Finally, a simulation case shows the process of the methods. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Establishment and Verification of PNN Model for Incident Detection QIN Pin-pin 2006, 6(4): 70-74 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (1270KB) ( )   This paper discusses classification, input variables and setting of a probabilistic neural network and develops a PNN incident detection model. A comparative evaluation between PNN and MLF model on I-880 site coil database and incident detection model id presented. The results show that Dr and MTTD is achieved by PNN model are better than MLF model; FAR is inferior than MLF model whether in northward, southward and the two directions. PNN is an effective algorithm in incident detection and is superior to MLF in theory, algorithm and learning speed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Model and Algorithm of Vehicle Routing Problem with Stochastic Travel Time YANG Xin-feng,YANG Qing-feng 2006, 6(4): 75-80 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (1205KB) ( )   Realisticaly, the uncertain factors have great effect on vehicle scheduling in the commodity delivery. Those factors have always made the delivery cost increased and the delivery quality declined. This paper sets up a stochastic chance-controled programming model to minimize total vehicle traveling distance and forms a single genetic algorithm for the model while considering customers’ requests about delivery time and uncertainty of traveling time. The simulation results show that the algorithm is very efficient. So there is both theoretical and practical value while taking design and realization of distribution vehicle routing problem as its study objects. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Study of the Traffic Flow Simulation in One Lane Based on the CA Modal ZHANG Kui,FANG Mei-qi,ZHAI Run-ping 2006, 6(4): 81-85 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (1313KB) ( )   Based on Negel-Schreken berg’s celllar automaton(CA) of traffic flow in one lane，taking the running situation which is oriented to freeway into consideration，making the gird more small，we do computer simulation．We make a observation of the running condition and consider the mean velocity and the delay of vehicles．The result of simulation indicated that the mean velocity and the delay of vehicles is similar to their fundamental tendency of variation．We can perceived from the time-space diagram, that the jam phase which is generated by this method is more gentle than the jam phase generated by the NS moda1．Because we lower the accelerated velocity to a more rational value and make the procedure of running mole continuous in the simulation，we can say，that our modal is approach the reality more than the NS modal． References | Related Articles | Metrics

Forum about Comprehensive Transportation System

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Analysis on Traffic Problems of Small and Medium Cities in China CHEN Xin,YANG Zhao-sheng,WANG Hai-yang,WANG Yan-xin,MIAO Xiao-kun 2006, 6(4): 86-89 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (1310KB) ( )   Nowadays, urban traffic volumes increase sharply．The traffic problems become serious day by day with backward development of traffic infrastructure and mix-traffic consists of pedestrians．bicycles and vehicles．There are lots of differences between big metropolitan and small and medium cities in capital，infrastructure，traffic management and traffic participants．In light of peculiarity of traffic features and traffic problems in small and medium cities in China，the paper analyzes the problems from the road infrastructures，the traffic management and the traffic participants．The solutions are also available here． References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Venture Evaluation of Toll Freeway Investment WANG Zuo-gong, JIA Yuan-hua, XU Li-ying 2006, 6(4): 90-94 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (1194KB) ( )   Aiming at the problems in venture evaluation of toll expressway, we analyze the characters of the investment venture on the expressway in China. Basing on the standalone risk evaluation model of toll expressway investment and the index system of venture evaluation that we have built and using The Analytical Hierarchy Process and The Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Method, we built up a Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation model of expressway investment venture Then, it was applied to evaluate Tianjin section of the expressway connecting Beijing and Shenyang.，and make some comparisons. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A New Decision-Making Method of Urban Parking Facilities GUO Tao,YANG Tao,WANG Rui-ping,ZHOU Chun-xia 2006, 6(4): 95-99 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (816KB) ( )   This paper uses some theories based on UEOWA and ULNA operators, and uses the language data to express fuzzy indices, which was difficult to quantify directly on multi-attribute decision-making issues in city parking facilities. Evaluating indices are made sure, and then uncertain language multi-attribute decision-making method based in UEOWA and ULHA operators was set up. The optimal scheme of city parking facilities planning could be decided according to this model. Finaly, this feasible model was proved by a simple example. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Macro Simulation Model of Urban Transport and Its Development LIU Zhi-li,CHEN Jin-chuan,GUO Ji-fu 2006, 6(4): 100-107 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (1407KB) ( )   This paper summarizes how urban transport system is modeled from the aspects of physical model, conceptional model, and the theory of simulation model. Based on the four-stage-model, this paper discusses the basic points and processes of establishing a macro simulation model. Finaly, taking the macro transport strategic model in Beijing as an example, the paper gives a minute description of model development. It is proved that macro simulation model can efficiently analyzes urban transport system and provides key parameters to urban planning, construction and management. Quantitative simulation platform is an important measure to make the decisions much scientific. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Combination Forecast Model by Using BP Neural Network and Its Application in Highway Transportation Volume Forecast ZHAO Shu-zhi,TIAN Zhen-zhong,ZHANG Shu-shan,JIN Jun-wu 2006, 6(4): 108-112 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (984KB) ( )   Combined forecast method compared with individual forecast methods can improve the precision and stability of forecast results，and it is widely used in practice．First，the basic idea of combined forecast is summarized．Then，combined-forecast model based on BP neural network is introduced and a calculation example of highway cargo volume in Jilin Province is presented．The forecasting result is very ideal and the applicability of this combined model is proved by mathematical statistics，the feasibility and applicability of this combined model are proved by statistical analysis and practice．This model for forecasting highway transportation volume is effective and feasible． References | Related Articles | Metrics

Cases Analysis

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Project Financing Decision-Making Model and Its Application in Financing of Expressway Project ZHANG Li-ying ZHANG Qiu-sheng 2006, 6(4): 113-118 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (1226KB) ( )   Project financing, which is different from traditional corporate financing, is on the basis of asset in-come of a project as a mortgage and the chief resource to guarantee the loan in project financing is restricted in project financing itself. This paper systematicaly researches decision-making method of project financing and uses the model in analyzing Changchun-Jilin expressway project, which is taken as an example. The study provides an effective method and scientific basis for expressway corporate to make a decision of project financing. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Software System Structure of ITS Common Information Platform in Guangzhou City ZHANG Wei,XU Jian-min 2006, 6(4): 119-124 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (1415KB) ( )   ITS common information platform is the core of the information share, exchange and information service of Inteligent Transportation System (ITS) in Guangzhou. And software system structure can affect performance of the platform. This paper advanced the principles of the platform software structure design, according to the construction situation and development demands of ITS in Guangzhou. And with the guidance of the principles, the software system stricture, including logic structure, software configuring structure and software deployment structure, were promoted and studied deeply. The software structure promoted, has been applied in the construction of ITS common information platform in Guangzhou. And the achievement of the demonstration project show that the software structure can realize the interconnection of the existing ITS subsystem effectively, and can be extended easily to meet the requirements of the ITS development in the future. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Study of Estimation of Weight Coefficient in Combination Forecast Models—The Application of the Least Absolute Value Model ZHANG Yan,MA Chuan-sheng, WEI Ke 2006, 6(4): 125-129 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (866KB) ( )   In combination forecast models, the key point is to decide the weight coefficient. This paper does a further study on the estimation of weight coeficient in diferent conditions. On the basis of traditional combination forecast models, we introduce one new intergraded prediction method called the least absolute value which takes the minimum sum of absolute value as the target function. Through the example, we can know that in general, the model of the least absolute value has preferable precision and preferable superiority to traditional models. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis and Forecast of Container and Transport System in Shenzhen Port WAN Zheng 2006, 6(4): 130-135 .  Abstract ( )   PDF (1530KB) ( )   The paper comprehensively analyzes the direct and indirect hinterlands of the container and transportation system in Shenzhen Port, which cover the Pearl River Delta area and Pan-Pearl River Delta area.The paper discusses the impact on the future trend of the goods resources for Shenzhen Port because of the rapid development of the neighboring Gusgzhou Port and Huizhou Port in the recent yeaes by independent survey and latest comparative intelligence analysis. At the same, the paper also discusses the significance of improing the transport accommodation capacity of the Pear River water network to attract more cago resources from neighboring provinces. With regards to international goods resources, Shenzhen Port should increase the amount of international transferring goods so as to make Shenzhen Port a real international shipping center. References | Related Articles | Metrics