Abstract: Traffic volume forecast means trendy traffic volume forecast conventionally．But when we forecast the traffic volume of some roads involved in read improvement preject it should include trendy traffic volume forecast，induce trffic volume forecast and transfer transfer volume forecast．Bases on the Four Stages method，this paper brings up a new method that can forecast the transfer traffic volume when there are road improvement preject in urban road network．The main content of this method includes：brings up a method of dividing traffic district while forecasting the transfer traffic volume，points out that it must use gravity model to forecast the transfer traffic volume, and brings up methods of calculating the traffic impedance when using gravity mode1．The method was used to calculate the traffic volume of Xiamen road network by using traffic software“Transtar"．The result shows that the method is effective．

Key words: prediction of transfer traffic volume, the net of city road, road improvement, Transtar

摘要： 常规城市路网交通需求预测只需要进行趋势流量预测。然而当涉及到路网中部分道路改造的交通流量预测则需要进行三个部分的预测：趋势流量预测、诱增流量预测以及转移流量预测。基于传统的四阶段交通预测理论，提出了路网中存在改造道路情况下的转移流量预测方法。该方法主要内容包括：提出了预测转移流量时划分交通小区的方法；指出要预测转移流量，在交通分布预测阶段必须选用重力模型；提出在应用重力模型过程中计算交通阻抗的办法。以实际项目——厦门市中心区路网流量预测作为实例，结合交通预测软件“交运之星”，应用本方法进行预测。结果表明该预测方法行之有效。

关键词: 转移流量预测, 城市路网, 道路改造, 交运之星