Abstract: Transit Route Adjustment and Effect Analysis System is indispensable for reasonable urban transit network planning, transit route adjustment and urban public transportation development. Transit route adjustment analysis is a complex optimal procedure which combines quantitative and qualitative methods, empirical and theoretical methods and creative and feedback processes. In this view, based on four-stage traffic model theory, using O-D estimation method and stochastic user equilibrium assignment model, with the purpose of achieving a realistic and reasonable result, this paper designed transit route adjustment and effect analysis procedure. Based on an 8-layer system architecture, the system is constructed under TransCAD platform. The system is proved to be valuable in application since the simulation results which based on a sample system integrating real transit network of a city are reasonable.

Key words: Public Transportation, Transit route adjustment and analysis, traffic assignment model, O-D matrix, TransCAD

摘要： 公共交通线路调整影响分析是一个定量与定性相结合、经验与理论相结合、创新与反馈相结合的复杂过程，是一个要涉及协调多方面利益和目标的寻优过程。本文基于四阶段交通模型理论，使用O-D反推技术和随机用户均衡配流模型，设计了公共交通线路调整影响分析流程，达到更实际、更合理的交通分配结果。以8图层架构为基础，提出了系统总体架构，最后使用TransCAD实现系统。通过某市实际的公交路网的模拟计算，得到了合理的结果，证明了系统具有较好的应用价值。

关键词: 公共交通, 公共交通线路影响分析, 配流模型, O-D矩阵, TransCAD