Abstract: In order to recur and preview the dynamic relationship between the allocation of railway tank cars for dangerous goods and risk level, a simulation model of the optimization allocation of dangerous goods tank cars based on risk control is constructed using System Dynamics on the basis that the cost and risk of the system of dangerous goods transportation by railway tank cars are analyzed, and the multi-feedbacks among risk, cost, demand and other factors in the system are taken into account. Finally, an instance illustrates that the simulation result of the model can reveal the dynamic trends of every crucial variable in the system under different risk control level in data and graph, which proves that the model is useful at determining the risk control level of the system of dangerous goods transportation by railway tank cars and the project of arranging the dangerous goods tank cars.

Key words: risk control, dangerous goods tank car, allocation, simulation model, system dynamics

摘要： 为了重现和预演铁路危险货物罐车配置方案与风险水平之间的动态关系，在对铁路危险货物罐车运输系统进行成本分析和风险分析的基础上，针对铁路危险货物罐车数量与来源结构、系统风险与成本及运输需求等因素间的多重反馈关系，采用系统动力学方法建立了基于风险控制的铁路危险货物罐车优化配置仿真模型，并进行了仿真实例分析。仿真结果证明，该模型可以直观地反映出系统各变量在不同风险水平下的动态变化趋势，有望用于在一定的可接受风险水平下的铁路危险货物罐车配置方案比选和在一定铁路危险货物罐车配置条件下的风险水平预测。

关键词: 风险控制, 危险货物罐车, 配置, 仿真模型, 系统动力学