Abstract: Area capacity evaluation is an essential and a key point to the effective implementation of air traffic flow management. It plays an important role in reducing flight delays and ensuring flying safety. With the increase of air traffic flow, the controller’s workload is rising and it has become one of the most important factors of the sector capacity. This paper deeply analyzed the controller’s workload model and the capacity evaluation from the aspects of both theory and practice. The definition of the controller’s workload was firstly introduced and the workload classification was put forward. Then the theory of evaluation model, which is based on the statistic of route flow, was established. After that, a specific method to evaluate the controller’s workload was discussed. Finally, based on the real data of Lanzhou airspace, the new controller’s and qualified controller’s workload evaluation for one sector was conducted with the presented model by regression analysis. The result accorded with the practice and validated the validity of the proposed model and method.

Key words: air traffic flow, capacity evaluation, controller’s workload, procedural control, regression analysis

摘要： 空中交通容量评估是有效实施空中交通流量管理策略的基本依据和关键技术，对保障飞行安全和航班延误起着至关重要的作用。随着空域流量的增加，管制员工作负荷日益增大，已成为限制空域容量的主要因素之一。本文从理论和实际应用两个方面研究了基于管制员工作负荷的容量评估问题。文章首先给出管制员工作负荷的定义，讨论了管制员工作负荷产生的原因，并以此为基础建立了基于航路流量统计的管制员工作负荷模型；然后通过新的模型研究了扇区容量评估方法；最后以兰州区域的实际扇区为背景，使用建立的模型，采用回归分析方法，分别计算了在成熟管制员和新手情况下兰州区域的扇区容量。计算结果符合实际运行情况，验证了所提模型和方法的可行性。

关键词: 空中交通, 容量评估, 管制员工作负荷, 程序管制, 回归分析