Abstract: The annual vehicle kilometers traveled (AVKT) is essential to study the transportation and environmental protection. The key influencing factors of AVKT include vehicle type, regional transportation capacity, and vehicles’ technique conditions. Because it is difficult to obtain the exact value of AVKT under current technical conditions, AVKT has to be estimated according to other data. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of AVKT, this study develops an algorithm to calculate AVKT on the basis of a small sample. The establishment of calculation formula is based on the data of vehicle type, vehicle licensing, accumulated mileage, and vehicle population. This study also proposes an algorithm to calculate vehicle mileage distribution based on the accumulated mileage. The research shows that AVKT is determined by the vehicle type distribution, vehicle age distribution, vehicle mileage distribution, and the accumulated mileage. With consideration of various factors, the method is suitable for a variety of classification standards and can be generalized to some extent. The method is also exemplified by the data and is proved to be feasible.

Key words: annual vehicle kilometers traveled, accumulated mileage of vehicle, vehicle age distribution, vehicle mileage distribution

摘要： 车辆年平均行驶里程（AVKT）是交通和环保领域研究工作的基础，其主要影响因素包括车辆种类、区域交通运输能力和车辆的技术状况等。由于目前的技术条件下难以得到AVKT的真实值, AVKT只能根据其他信息估测获得。在分析AVKT影响因素的基础上，提出一种利用小样本数据计算AVKT的算法。该算法根据车辆种类、上牌日期、累积里程和保有量等数据建立计算公式，提出了由累积里程计算里程分布这一关键过程的计算方法。研究表明,车辆的种类分布、车龄分布、里程分布和累积里程决定了AVKT的多少。该算法综合多种影响因素，适合多种分类标准，具有较好的适用性，并通过实例应用证明该算法的可行性。

关键词: 车辆年平均行驶里程, 车辆累积里程, 车龄分布, 里程分布