Traffic Accidents Prediction and Prominent Influencing Factors Analysis Based on Fuzzy Logic

Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology ›› 2009, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (2): 87-92 .

• Systems Engineering Theory and Methods • Previous Articles Next Articles

Traffic Accidents Prediction and Prominent Influencing Factors Analysis Based on Fuzzy Logic

MENG Xiang-hai ; ZHENG Lai; QIN Guan-ming

Institution of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China

Received:2008-07-29 Revised:2008-10-06 Online:2009-04-25 Published:2009-04-25
Contact: MENG Xiang-hai

基于模糊逻辑的交通事故预测及影响因素分析

孟祥海^*;郑来;秦观明

哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学院，哈尔滨 150090

通讯作者: 孟祥海
作者简介:孟祥海（1969-），男，哈尔滨，教授.

Abstract

Abstract: Traffic accidents prediction plays an important role in improving traffic safety management. In this paper, a fuzzy logic based model is developed for urban traffic accident prediction. The model is trained and tested by the traffic and traffic accidents data from 133 city roads in Harbin. And then, the fuzzy logic prediction model with 41 effective rules is obtained. The test result shows a good relationship between the observed and predicted data, which proves the feasibility of the proposed method.. In addition, the concept of safety improvement factor is put forward, that can find the prominent influencing factors in high-risk road and offer useful suggestions to improve road safety status.

Key words: urban road, accidents prediction, fuzzy logic, control rules, prominent influencing factors

摘要： 交通事故预测对于提高交通安全管理水平具有重要意义，通过对传统交通事故预测方法的对比分析，提出了基于模糊逻辑的城市道路交通事故预测模型，并结合哈尔滨市133条主次干道的交通及交通事故数据对模型进行了训练及检验，最终确定了含有41条有效模糊控制规则的模糊逻辑预测模型。模型检验结果表明，应用模糊逻辑预测模型预测得到的事故数与实际事故数之间有很好的对应关系。因此，采用模糊逻辑理论进行道路交通事故预测具有一定的可行性。此外，依据模糊逻辑事故预测模型提出了安全改进因子的概念，可据此查明高风险道路上的突出事故影响因素，从而为改善交通安全提供合理建议。

关键词: 城市道路, 事故预测, 模糊逻辑, 控制规则, 突出影响因素

CLC Number:

U491

MENG Xiang-hai, ZHENG Lai, QIN Guan-ming. Traffic Accidents Prediction and Prominent Influencing Factors Analysis Based on Fuzzy Logic[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2009, 9(2): 87-92 .

孟祥海,郑来,秦观明. 基于模糊逻辑的交通事故预测及影响因素分析[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2009, 9(2): 87-92 .

Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

URL: http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/abstract/abstract17791.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/Y2009/V9/I2/87

References

[1] Milton J, Mannering,. The relationship among highway geometrics, traffic-related elements and motor-vehicle accident frequencies[J]. Transportation,1998,25: 395-413.

[2] Abdel-Aty, M A, Radwan, A E. Modeling traffic accident occurrence and involvement[J]. Accid. Anal. Prev. 2000.32,:633-642.

[3] Ivan J N, Wang C, Bernardo N R. Explaining two-lane highway crash rates using land-use and hourly exposure[J]. Accid. Anal. Prev. 2000.32:787-795.

[4] Wood G R. Generalized linear accident models and goodness of fit testing[J]. Accid. Anal. Prev. 2002.34: 417-427.

[5] LINDA M, B F, D J. Accident prediction models for roads with minor junctions. Accid. Anal. Prev. 1996.28,:695-707.

[6] Alireza Hadayeghi, Amer S. Shalaby, Bhagwant N. Persaud, Carl Cheung. Temporal transferability and updating of zonal level accident prediction models[J]. Accid. Anal. Prev. 2006,38: 579-589.

[7] Ziad Sawalha, Tarek Sayed, Transferability of accident prediction models[J]. Saftey Science. 2006,44: 209-219.

[8] 李相勇，张南，蒋葛夫. 道路交通事故灰色马尔可夫预测模型[J]. 公路交通科技，2003，20(4): 98-100.[ LI Xiang-yong, ZHANG Nan, JIANG Ge-fu. Grey-markov model for road accidents forecasting[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University，2003，11(4): 193-197.]

[9] 李娟，邵春福. 基于BP神经网络的交通事故预测模型[J]. 交通与计算机，2006，24(2): 34-37.[ LI Juan, SHAO Chun-fu. Traffic accident forecast model based on bp neural network[J]. Computer and Communications，2006，24(2): 34-37.]

[10] 陈鹏，李旭宏，孙华灿. 基于分形理论的交通事故分析[J]. 公路交通科技，2008，25(3): 130-133.[ CHEN Peng, LI Xuhong, SUN Huacan. Analysis of traffic accident based on fractal theory[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2008, 25(3): 130-133.]

[1]	WANGWanqi, CHENG Guozhu, XU Liang. Identification of Aggressive Lane-changing Behaviour Based on Unsupervised Cluster Analysis [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2024, 24(2): 166-178.
[2]	WANGJianyu, CHEN Xiantian, JIAO Pengpeng, QIN Chuliang, WANG Zehao. Interactive Effect on Traffic Accident Severity Considering Built Environment [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2024, 24(2): 272-280.
[3]	WANG Dian-hai, HUANG Li-sha, ZENG Jia-qi, CAI Zheng-yi . Influence Mechanism of Rainfall on Traffic State of Urban Road Network [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2023, 23(3): 48-55.
[4]	ZHANG Wei-bin , ZHANG Pu-lin, SU Zi-yi , SUN Feng. Missing Data Repairs for Road Network Traffic Flow with Self-attention Graph Auto-encoder Networks [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2021, 21(4): 90-98.
[5]	ZHANG Ling-xuan, SHUAI Bin, DING Dong, ZHANG Shi-hang, WANG Rui. Perimeter Control Strategy of Urban Road Network Considering Superblocks [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2020, 20(6): 91-98.
[6]	CHEN Xi-qun, ZHOU Ling-xiao, CAO Zhen. Short-term Network-wide Traffic Prediction Based on Graph Convolutional Network [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2020, 20(4): 49-55.
[7]	QU Zhao-wei, PAN Zhao-tian, CHEN Yong-heng, LI Hai-tao,WANG Xin. Distributed Signal Control of Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning Based on Game [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2020, 20(2): 76-82.
[8]	ZHANG Xun-xun, XU Hong-ke, YAN Mao-de. Coordinated Control Strategy for Multi-subarea Based on MFD in Urban Zonal Road Networks [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2017, 17(1): 98-105.
[9]	WEIWei，MAO Bao-hua，CHEN Shao-kuan，ZHOU Yang-fan. Urban Traffic Status Clustering Method Based on Spatio-temporal Autocorrelation [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2016, 16(2): 57-63.
[10]	LI Ai-zeng,WANG Xiao-xiao, LIWen-quan. Capacity Calculation Method of Urban Road Unsignalized T-intersections [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2015, 15(5): 208-215.
[11]	WEI Zhen-lin, GAN Yang-jie, ZHAO Peng. Characteristic Research of Urban Complex Traffic Network [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2015, 15(1): 106-111.
[12]	HE Zhao-cheng, CHU Jun-fei, ZHUANG Li-jian, YE Wei-jia. An On-line Map-matching Method for Tunnel Section Based on Floating Car Data [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2014, 14(2): 74-79.
[13]	MENG Xiang-hai, WANG Dan-dan, ZHANG Zhi-zhao. Analysis and Prediction of Operating Speed on Horizontal Curve Combined with Longitudinal Slope for Expressway [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2014, 14(2): 150-157.
[14]	LI Ai-zeng, SONG Xiang-hong. Capacity　Calculation Method of Urban Road All-way Stop-controlled Intersections [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2014, 14(1): 200-208.
[15]	YU Rong, WANG Guo-xiang, ZHENG Ji-yuan，WANG Hai-yan. Urban Road Traffic Condition Pattern Recognition Based on Support Vector Machine [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2013, 13(1): 130-.

Traffic Accidents Prediction and Prominent Influencing Factors Analysis Based on Fuzzy Logic

基于模糊逻辑的交通事故预测及影响因素分析

PDF

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Recommended Articles

Metrics