Abstract: With analysis of the influencing factors of traffic mode choice in economic circle, this paper developed a modal split Nested-Logit model including three indices as trip cost, travel time, and adaptability. The comfort levels of different traffic modes were described by the fatigue recovery time with calculation of the time values. Nested-Logit model is an improved and more practical model based on the multi-nomial Logit model, which considered the correlations among all the traffic modes, and could classify the similar traffic modes. A method of solving Nested-Logit model was proposed by analyzing the internal relation between the two models, which was direct and easy to operate. Thereafter, the validity and practicability of the proposed method were demonstrated by the examples of traffic modal split of several cities in the economic circle of Yangtze River Delta.

Key words: economic circle, Nested-Logit model, traffic modal split, fatigue recovery curve

摘要： 在分析经济圈交通方式选择影响因素的基础上，利用出行费用、出行时间和舒适性等指标作为广义费用函数的主要构成属性，建立了基于Nested-Logit模型的经济圈交通方式划分方法。并采用出行疲劳恢复时间来描述不同交通方式出行的舒适程度，然后用时间价值的计算方法求得疲劳恢复时间的价值。Nested-Logit模型是在一般多项Logit模型基础上的一种改进模型,考虑了各交通方式之间的相关性,对具有相似性的交通方式进行了分类,因此该模型更接近实际情况，相对合理。同时通过分析这两种模型的内在关系,提出了一种求解Nested-Logit模型的方法,该方法程序化强,便于应用。最后以长三角经济圈部分城市之间的交通方式划分作为实例，说明了该方法有效可行。

关键词: 经济圈, Nested-Logit模型, 交通方式划分, 疲劳恢复曲线